Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

Our Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB include talks, webinars, forums and other events on topics of interest to central banks. Currently, we are running three series. Our Conversations on Central Banking webinar series, draws on the experience of our Advisory Board Members, comprising former central bank Governors from around the world, and the expertise of our MIT and other faculty members on topical issues in central banking. Our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies webinar series, hosted jointly with the SEACEN Centre, provides a forum for policy-relevant work on topics in macroeconomics, finance and their nexus, and especially work relevant to the challenges confronting emerging economies. We feature selected sessions from our ASB Research Seminars, on topics related to macroeconomics, finance and central banking. Finally, we provide a platform for special events, such as presentations by international organisations on policy initiatives and regional/global publications. All events are open to the public, but pre-registration is required. Seats are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. Scroll down to see upcoming and past initiatives, including registration links.

We are also launching a new Master of Central Banking (MCB) for mid-career central bank staff, in June 2021. Visit Master of Central Banking to know more or download the brochure.

UPCOMING INITIATIVES

DR ZETI AZIZ
Former Governor
Bank Negara Malaysia

SIR PAUL TUCKER
Author
Unelected Power

The environment facing central bankers and regulators is increasingly complex and unpredictable. Technological, geopolitical, and institutional changes are creating new challenges for policy makers. Many of these are the result of global developments beyond the control of authorities in individual economies. Building resilience and robust policy frameworks are therefore key for maintaining economic and financial stability.

Join us for a live webinar on Building Resilience and Policy Frameworks with Former Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia, Dr Zeti Aziz and Author of Unelected Power, Sir Paul Tucker. This event is moderated by our own Professor Hans Genberg and is part of our Conversations on Central Banking series.

PATRICK HONOHAN
Former Governor
Central Bank of Ireland

MÁR GUÐMUNDSSON
Former Governor
Central Bank of Iceland

Not all macro-financial crises are created equal. Some of them are homegrown, fed by a bursting property bubble. Others barge in from the outside, like an unwanted infectious guest. How do central banks manage these different crises?

Join us for a live webinar on Approaches to Financial Crisis with Former Governors, Patrick Honohan of the Central Bank of Ireland and Már Guðmundsson of the Central Bank of Iceland. This event is moderated by our own Professor Eli Remolona and is part of our Conversations on Central Banking series.

PAST INITIATIVES

HANS GENBERG
Professor of Economics
Senior Director of Banking and Finance Programs
Asia School of Business

ANELLA MUNRO
Professor of Economics
Asia School of Business

OLE RUMMEL
Director
Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Management
The SEACEN

Has the IMF’s advice on managing foreign capital flow surges and sudden stops improved after the 2012 adoption of a new official policy position? How helpful do Asian policymakers find IMF advice on capital flow issues? And how should the IMF revise its policy position when it comes up for review next year?

The seminar will feature a presentation by Prakash Loungani on the IEO’s report on the quality of IMF advice to countries on dealing with capital flow volatility, followed by an in-depth look at the advice provided to four countries (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) based on a background paper prepared by Prof Hans Genberg, Prof Anella Munro and Dr Ole Rummel will provide comments on the IEO report and the background paper.

DEBORAH LUCAS
Sloan Distinguished Professor Finance
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

DEBORAH LUCAS ON MONETIZATION

26 November 2020 – 12.00pm MYT (GMT + 8)

The current macroeconomic policy scene in advanced economies is dominated by three interrelated challenges: rapidly meeting the unprecedented spending needs to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, while holding government debt to a sustainable level and avoiding deflation. Is monetising some of the pandemic-related debt the best approach to addressing all three issues, simultaneously, and at what risk to future above-target inflation?

Join us for a live webinar on “Monetization” with Professor Deborah Lucas. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre.

SOEDRADJAD DJIWANDONO
Former Governor
Bank of Indonesia

MARTIN REDRADO
Former President
Central Bank of Argentina

The virtue of an independent central bank is supported by a large body of evidence. The evidence shows that a central bank that can operate without political interference produces superior economic outcomes. Yet this independence often comes under threat. What are the threats facing central banks? What can central banks do to preserve that independence?

Join us for a live webinar on Central Bank Independence with Former Governor of Bank of Indonesia, Soedradjad Djiwandono and Former President of Central Bank of Argentina, Martin Redrado. This event is moderated by our own Professor Eli Remolona and is part of our Conversations on Central Banking series.

JOSÉ DE GREGORIO
Former Governor
Central Bank of Chile

VEERATHAI SANTIPRABHOB
Former Governor
Bank of Thailand

It is increasingly recognized that instability in international financial markets can cause monetary and financial instability in emerging markets through surges and sudden stops in capital flows and accompanying volatility in exchange rates. In response central banks are adding foreign exchange market interventions, capital flow management policies, and macroprudential policies to their toolkits of policy instruments.

Join us for a live webinar on How can the Integrated Policy Framework Benefit Emerging Economies? with Former Governors, Jose de Gregorio of the Central Bank of Chile and Veerathai Santiprabhob of the Bank of Thailand. This event is moderated by our own Professor Hans Genberg and is part of our Conversations on Central Banking series.

ALISON STUART
Division Chief for the Regional Studies Division,
Asia Pacific Department,
International Monetary Fund

Join us for the virtual outreach of the IMF Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific. IMF researchers will present the most recent economic forecasts for the region and discuss the findings of the two analytical chapters of the REO: “COVID-19 Lockdowns and Exits in Asia: Some Lessons” and “COVID-19 and Inequality in Asia: Risks of Social Unrest?”

This event is jointly organized by Asia School of Business (ASB) and the SEACEN Centre. There will be ample opportunities to ask questions. 

GLENN STEVENS
Former Governor
Reserve Bank of Australia

ATHANASIOS ORPHANIDES
Professor of Practice,
Global Economics and Management,
MIT Sloan School of Management

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 led the world’s major central banks to massively increase their holdings of government debt and other securities. After a brief pause, these central banks resumed their buying spree following the coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Are there any consequences of having such large balance sheets? What should central banks do going forward?

Join us for a live webinar on Bloated Central Bank Balance Sheets with former Governors Glenn Stevens and Athanasios Orphanides. This event is moderated by our own Professor Eli Remolona and is part of our Conversations on Central Banking series.

ATIF MIAN
John H. Laporte, Jr. Class of 1967
Professor of Economics,
Public Policy and Finance
Princeton University

ATIF MIAN ON EMERGING MARKETS AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

8 October 2020 – 8.00pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Join us for a live webinar and Q&A with Professor Atif Mian on “Emerging Markets and International Capital Flows“. In this session, Prof Mian will take us through what we know and what we don’t know about cross-border capital flows to emerging economies. Why does it matter? Where is the system failing us? and Where does that leave policy makers? He will also talk about the cross-border implications of his recent paper, “Indebted Demand”. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre.

ANTONIO FATAS
Professor of Economics
INSEAD

ANTONIO FATAS ON HYSTERISIS AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2 September 2020 – 12.15pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

FRANK WARNOCK
James C. Wheat
Jr. Professor of Business Administration,
Darden School of Business
University of Virginia

FRANK WARNOCK ON THE NATURAL RATE OF CAPITAL FLOWS

3 September 2020 – 8.30am MYT (GMT + 8)

Join us for a discussion about “The Natural Level of Capital Flows”. Prof Warnock will propose a theory-based, time-varying, supply-side measure of the natural level of capital flows, and take it for a spin using time series data from a large group of countries. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here to know more about the paper.

KATHRYN DOMINGUEZ
Professor of Public Policy and Economics
University of Michigan

KATHRYN DOMINGUEZ ON REVISITING EXCHANGE RATE RULES

12 August 2020 – 9am MYT (GMT + 8)

Join us for a live webinar and Q&A with Professor Kathryn Dominguez on “Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules“. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.

TRIWIT ARIYATHUGUN
Assistant Professor of Economics
Asia School of Business

TRIWIT ARIYATHUGUN ON INTEREST ON EXCESS RESERVES POLICY AND ASSET PRICES
5 August 2020 – 12:15pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Abstract
I study how the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) implementation affects asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. I decompose the transmission channels into the portfolio channel and the fiscal financing one. The portfolio channel suggests that with positive IOER, the demand for risk taking on average decreases, which lead to decreases in the price of risk and the equity risk premium. Given that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is bigger than one, the consumption-to-wealth ratio increases, which stimulate the capital accumulation, and opposite are true for the negative IOER policy. The income tax that finances either the positive or the negative IOER reduces the volatility of the cumulative return process. Combining effects of both channels, the model suggests that both positive and negative IOER policies lead to lower return volatility, lower price of risk, and lower risk premium. The positive IOER policy contracts the real economy while the negative one expands it.

ELI REMOLONA
Professor of Finance
Program Director of Masters of Central Banking
Asia School of Business

ELI REMOLONA ON SLOW BURN CONTAGION
29 July 2020 – 12:15pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Abstract
When global banks face losses from a financial crisis, they invariably respond by reducing their lending activity, and they do so even to borrowers that are not part of the crisis. It is a response that often takes place over several years. Hence, I call this phenomenon “slow-burn contagion.” Moreover, links between different global banks can make the contagion worse. Borrowing from game theory, I propose the Shapley value as an indicator of the risk of slow-burn contagion that takes account of the links in the global banking network. I illustrate this idea by estimating the indicator for the ASEAN region.

ABDUL ABIAD
Director, Macroeconomic Research Division
Asian Development Bank

ABDUL ABIAD ON LOCKDOWN, LOOSENING AND ASIA’S GROWTH PROSPECTS
22 July 2020 – 3:00pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Abstract
Developing Asia is now projected to grow by only 0.1% in 2020, which would be the lowest regional growth outcome since 1961. Contraction is expected in all subregions except in East Asia. Growth will rebound to 6.2% in 2021 but composite GDP next year will remain below its pre-crisis trend, so the recovery will not be V-shaped. Excluding newly industrialized economies, regional growth is forecast at 0.4% in 2020 and 6.6% in 2021. Regional inflation is expected to remain benign at 2.9% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021.

ANELLA MUNRO
Professor of Economics
Asia School of Business

ANELLA MUNRO ON THREE SHORT RATES: MODELLING MONETARY POLICY AND RISK
15 July 2020 – 12:15pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Abstract
Short-term interest rates are largely determined by monetary policy, that is changed occasionally, but volatile floating exchange rates imply volatile risk-adjusted interest returns. To reconcile the two, this paper proposes a framework that accounts for both short-term bond risk and monetary policy intervention in short-term bond markets. These two departures distinguish the three short-term interest rates defined, but conflated, in a standard monetary model — the inter-temporal marginal rate of substitution, a short-term bond rate and the policy rate. Distinguishing the three rates is consistent with their different definitions and with empirical evidence. The framework implies less direct transmission from monetary policy to consumption; and provides new mechanisms to match asset price behaviour, with less exotic preferences.

DAVID FERNANDEZ
Professor of Finance (Practice)
Lee Kong Chian School of Business
Singapore Management University

Professor David Fernandez gave a webinar on the “Challenges of Investing in Asia in Times of COVID-19“. This event was part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.

MARKUS BRUNNERMEIER
Edwards S. Professor of Economics
Princeton University

Professor Markus Brunnermeier gave a webinar on the “A Safe Asset Perspective for an Integrated Policy Framework“. This event was part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.

HYUN SONG SHIN
Economic Adviser and Head of Research
Bank for International Settlements

HYUN SONG SHIN ON THE ORIGINAL SIN REDUX

14 May 2020 – 3:00pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Hyun Song Shin gave a webinar on the “Original Sin Redux“. This event was part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.