Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

Our Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB include talks, webinars, forums and other events on topics of interest to central banks. Currently, we are running three series. Our Conversations on Central Banking Series, draws on the experience of our Advisory Board Members, comprising former central bank Governors from around the world, and the expertise of our MIT and other faculty members on topical issues in central banking. Our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series provides a forum for policy-relevant work on topics in macroeconomics, finance and their nexus, and especially work relevant to the challenges confronting emerging economies. Finally, we also feature selected sessions from our ASB Research Seminars Series, on topics related to macroeconomics, finance and central banking. All events are open to the public, but pre-registration is required. Seats are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. Scroll down to see upcoming and past initiatives, including registration links.

We are also launching a new Master of Central Banking (MCB) for mid-career central bank staff. Visit Master of Central Banking to know more or download the brochure.

UPCOMING INITIATIVES

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

ATIF MIAN
John H. Laporte, Jr. Class of 1967
Professor of Economics,
Public Policy and Finance
Princeton University

ATIF MIAN ON EMERGING MARKETS AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

8 October 2020 – 8.00pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Join us for a live webinar and Q&A with Professor Atif Mian on “Emerging Markets and International Capital Flows“. In this session, Prof Mian will take us through what we know and what we don’t know about cross-border capital flows to emerging economies. Why does it matter? Where is the system failing us? and Where does that leave policy makers? He will also talk about the cross-border implications of his recent paper, “Indebted Demand”. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

DEBORAH LUCAS
Sloan Distinguished Professor Finance
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

DEBORAH LUCAS ON DEBT MONETISATION

Date and time to be decided

Join us for a live webinar and Q&A with Professor Deborah Lucas on “Debt Monetisation”. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre.

Coming soon.

PAST INITIATIVES

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

ANTONIO FATAS
Professor of Economics
INSEAD

ANTONIO FATAS ON HYSTERISIS AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2 September 2020 – 12.15pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

FRANK WARNOCK
James C. Wheat
Jr. Professor of Business Administration,
Darden School of Business
University of Virginia

FRANK WARNOCK ON THE NATURAL RATE OF CAPITAL FLOWS

3 September 2020 – 8.30am MYT (GMT + 8)

Join us for a discussion about “The Natural Level of Capital Flows”. Prof Warnock will propose a theory-based, time-varying, supply-side measure of the natural level of capital flows, and take it for a spin using time series data from a large group of countries. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here to know more about the paper.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

KATHRYN DOMINGUEZ
Professor of Public Policy and Economics
University of Michigan

KATHRYN DOMINGUEZ ON REVISITING EXCHANGE RATE RULES

12 August 2020 – 9am MYT (GMT + 8)

Join us for a live webinar and Q&A with Professor Kathryn Dominguez on “Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules“. This event is part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

TRIWIT ARIYATHUGUN
Assistant Professor of Economics
Asia School of Business

Abstract
I study how the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) implementation affects asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. I decompose the transmission channels into the portfolio channel and the fiscal financing one. The portfolio channel suggests that with positive IOER, the demand for risk taking on average decreases, which lead to decreases in the price of risk and the equity risk premium. Given that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is bigger than one, the consumption-to-wealth ratio increases, which stimulate the capital accumulation, and opposite are true for the negative IOER policy. The income tax that finances either the positive or the negative IOER reduces the volatility of the cumulative return process. Combining effects of both channels, the model suggests that both positive and negative IOER policies lead to lower return volatility, lower price of risk, and lower risk premium. The positive IOER policy contracts the real economy while the negative one expands it.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

ELI REMOLONA
Professor of Finance
Program Director of Masters of Central Banking
Asia School of Business

ELI REMOLONA ON SLOW BURN CONTAGION
29 July 2020 – 12:15pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Abstract
When global banks face losses from a financial crisis, they invariably respond by reducing their lending activity, and they do so even to borrowers that are not part of the crisis. It is a response that often takes place over several years. Hence, I call this phenomenon “slow-burn contagion.” Moreover, links between different global banks can make the contagion worse. Borrowing from game theory, I propose the Shapley value as an indicator of the risk of slow-burn contagion that takes account of the links in the global banking network. I illustrate this idea by estimating the indicator for the ASEAN region.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

ABDUL ABIAD
Director, Macroeconomic Research Division
Asian Development Bank

Abstract
Developing Asia is now projected to grow by only 0.1% in 2020, which would be the lowest regional growth outcome since 1961. Contraction is expected in all subregions except in East Asia. Growth will rebound to 6.2% in 2021 but composite GDP next year will remain below its pre-crisis trend, so the recovery will not be V-shaped. Excluding newly industrialized economies, regional growth is forecast at 0.4% in 2020 and 6.6% in 2021. Regional inflation is expected to remain benign at 2.9% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

ANELLA MUNRO
Professor of Economics
Asia School of Business

Abstract
Short-term interest rates are largely determined by monetary policy, that is changed occasionally, but volatile floating exchange rates imply volatile risk-adjusted interest returns. To reconcile the two, this paper proposes a framework that accounts for both short-term bond risk and monetary policy intervention in short-term bond markets. These two departures distinguish the three short-term interest rates defined, but conflated, in a standard monetary model — the inter-temporal marginal rate of substitution, a short-term bond rate and the policy rate. Distinguishing the three rates is consistent with their different definitions and with empirical evidence. The framework implies less direct transmission from monetary policy to consumption; and provides new mechanisms to match asset price behaviour, with less exotic preferences.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

DAVID FERNANDEZ
Professor of Finance (Practice)
Lee Kong Chian School of Business
Singapore Management University

Professor David Fernandez gave a webinar on the “Challenges of Investing in Asia in Times of COVID-19“. This event was part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

MARKUS BRUNNERMEIER
Edwards S. Professor of Economics
Princeton University

Professor Markus Brunnermeier gave a webinar on the “A Safe Asset Perspective for an Integrated Policy Framework“. This event was part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.

Central Banking Initiatives @ ASB

HYUN SONG SHIN
Economic Adviser and Head of Research
Bank for International Settlements

HYUN SONG SHIN ON THE ORIGINAL SIN REDUX

14 May 2020 – 3:00pm MYT (GMT + 8)

Hyun Song Shin gave a webinar on the “Original Sin Redux“. This event was part of our Macro, Finance and Emerging Economies Webinar Series, hosted in collaboration with the SEACEN Centre. Click here for more information.