Category: Featured in the Media

KUALA LUMPUR: Kalangan ahli ekonomi yakin Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) Malaysia bagi suku kedua 2024 akan berkembang pada 5.8 peratus berbanding 4.2 peratus pada suku pertama tahun ini.

Mereka berpendapat, pertumbuhan KDNK akan dirangsang oleh aktiviti perindustrian yang rancak, harga minyak sawit mentah lebih tinggi, pengangguran yang berkurangan dan peningkatan perbelanjaan.

Ahli ekonomi turut bersetuju ekonomi berada dalam kedudukan baik untuk berkembang antara 4.0 dan 5.0 peratus bagi keseluruhan 2024, dengan badan perakaunan memaklumkan, keyakinan global terhadap Malaysia meningkat dengan ketara berikutan telah mempamerkan daya tahan ekonomi yang jelas.

Ketua Ahli Ekonomi Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd, Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, berkata pertumbuhan KDNK suku kedua 2024 akan sejajar dengan unjuran awal Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia (DOSM) sebanyak 5.8 peratus.

Bercakap kepada Bernama, beliau berkata momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi akan berterusan sehingga suku kedua 2024, mengatasi pertumbuhan suku pertama 4.2 peratus.

Mohd Afzanizam berkata, data semasa menunjukkan ekonomi Malaysia dijangka berkembang baik pada Jun.

Beliau menekankan bahawa negara mencatat pertumbuhan lebih tinggi dalam indeks volum perkhidmatan dan indeks pengeluaran perindustrian, masing-masing meningkat 6.7 peratus dan 4.5 peratus, pada suku kedua 2024.

Beliau berkata, pengeluaran minyak sawit mentah naik dua angka kepada 15.9 peratus berbanding 3.4 peratus sebelum ini, menunjukkan peningkatan pendapatan eksport daripada sumber pendapatan komoditi bukan minyak utama negara.

Selain itu, Mohd Afzanizam berkata kadar pengangguran kekal pada 3.3 peratus untuk tiga suku berturut-turut, tetapi jumlah pengangguran susut kepada 557,800 pada suku kedua 2024 daripada 561,100 pada suku pertama 2024.

“Sehubungan itu, pasaran pekerjaan Malaysia mungkin telah mencapai status pekerjaan penuh, menandakan terdapat banyak pekerjaan boleh diisi dan lebih ramai rakyat mempunyai pekerjaan dan meraih pendapatan.

“Pengenalan akaun pengeluaran fleksibel oleh Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP), di samping program pemindahan tunai, akan memungkinkan trajektori pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi dalam tempoh terdekat.

“Sehubungan itu, KDNK suku kedua 2024 sewajarnya lebih tinggi berbanding suku sebelumnya,” kata beliau.

Professor of Practice dan Pengarah Pusat Penyelidikan Perbankan Pusat di Asia School of Business, Ozer Karagedikli senada dengan Mohd Afzanizam, sambil menyatakan KDNK yang diunjur berkembang 5.8 peratus, mendorong keyakinan terhadap keteguhan ekonomi negara.

Karagedikli berkata, Malaysia mempunyai potensi ekonomi yang besar, justeru kadar pertumbuhan antara 4.0 dan 5.5 peratus mungkin boleh dicapai.

Beliau berkata, memandangkan julat berkenaan adalah luas, keadaan sedemikian adalah rumit berikutan untuk mencapai pertumbuhan konsisten hampir enam peratus dijangkakan mencabar.

“Ia tidak semudah itu memandangkan untuk mencapai kadar pertumbuhan yang konsisten hampir 6.0 peratus tahun demi tahun adalah munasabah, tetapi mungkin berdepan cabaran, tanpa pembaharuan ketara untuk meningkatkan produktiviti dan daya saing ekonomi,” katanya.

Sementara itu, Kaji Selidik Situasi Ekonomi Global oleh Persatuan Akauntan Bertauliah Berkanun (ACCA) dan Institut Akauntan Pengurusan mendapati keyakinan akauntan dan profesional kewangan global meningkat terhadap ekonomi Malaysia, terutama bagi suku kedua 2024.

ACCA dalam kenyataan berkata, rantau Asia Pasifik, termasuk Malaysia, telah menunjukkan daya tahan yang ketara, memberikan gambaran lebih jelas mengenai hala tuju aliran ekonomi serantau dan keutamaan risiko.

“Malaysia, sebagai sebahagian daripada rantau Asia Pasifik, telah mencerminkan arah aliran positif ini. Sektor pembuatan negara telah menyaksikan peningkatan yang ketara, didorong oleh peningkatan permintaan global dan kemajuan teknologi,” katanya.

Menurutnya, tinjauan itu mendapati inisiatif kerajaan Malaysia baru-baru ini untuk merangsang ekonomi digital dan meningkatkan infrastruktur terus menyokong pertumbuhan itu.

“Dasar utama seperti Aspirasi Pelaburan Nasional dan Pelan Tindakan Ekonomi Digital Malaysia telah memainkan peranan penting dalam memacu daya tahan ekonomi,” katanya.

Ketua Ahli Ekonomi Global Juwai IQI Shan Saeed turut mengunjurkan KDNK bergerak antara 4.0 hingga 4.5 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, didorong oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi Malaysia yang kukuh secara keseluruhan, dalam keadaan ketidaktentuan ekonomi global, risiko geopolitik dan kejatuhan pasaran ekuiti di barat.

Beliau berkata, ekonomi global yang tidak menentu telah menyebabkan ekonomi Malaysia kekal sebagai penerima manfaat dan terus menarik pelaburan berikutan pelabur akan berpindah ke negara yang mempunyai pelaburan infrastruktur yang kukuh.

“Penggunaan dan pelaburan (antara petunjuk KDNK) dijangka teguh, sekali gus memperkukuh kestabilan ekonomi. Sementara itu, ketibaan pelancong,teknologi litar bersepadu (ICT), dan eksport komoditi memberi isyarat positif kepada pasaran,” katanya.

Pada 19 Julai, DOSM mengumumkan ekonomi Malaysia diunjurkan berkembang 5.8 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, meningkat daripada 4.2 peratus pada suku sebelumnya serta pertumbuhan tertinggi sejak suku keempat 2022 yang mencatatkan 7.4 peratus.

Ketua Perangkawan, Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin, berkata, bagi separuh pertama 2024, KDNK meningkat 5.0 peratus berbanding 4.1 tahun lalu.

Katanya, ekonomi Malaysia dijangka meneruskan momentum pertumbuhan, disokong oleh faktor domestik dan didorong oleh eksport, dengan prospek yang positif sepanjang tahun ini.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) akan mengeluarkan data rasmi KDNK suku kedua 2024 pada Jumaat.

Mohd Afzanizam berpendapat Malaysia berada di landasan yang tepat untuk mencapai unjuran julat KDNK antara 4.0 peratus hingga 5.0 peratus tahun ini.

“Risiko kepada pertumbuhan agak seimbang buat masa ini berikutan ekonomi utama masih berkembang dalam zon positif. Apa yang penting pada masa ini adalah risiko kenaikan yang terhasil daripada rasionalisasi subsidi bahan api, terutama RON95,” katanya.

Selain itu, Mohd Afzanizam berkata pendirian dalam kalangan perniagaan dari segi penetapan harga menunjukkan kecenderungan untuk meningkatkan harga, yang akan diterjemahkan kepada jangkaan inflasi yang lebih tinggi.

“Sehubungan itu, BNM dijangka mengekalkan pendirian dasar monetari semasanya memandangkan ia perlu mencapai keseimbangan yang wajar antara menggalakkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengelak risiko inflasi lebih tinggi.

“Pada 3.00 peratus, OPR dilihat berada pada kedudukan wajar untuk BNM terus menyokong ekonomi,” kata beliau.

Sementara itu, Shan mengunjurkan KDNK Malaysia pada 2024 menokok daripada 4.3 peratus kepada 4.8 peratus, didorong oleh kestabilan makroekonomi, harga komoditi yang lebih tinggi, tarikan (ICT)/semikonduktor dan geografi yang strategik.

“Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi akan memberi manfaat kepada kerajaan dari segi mengukuhkan bahagian fiskal lembaran imbangan.

Shan berkata, di samping itu, dari segi geografi, Malaysia terletak dalam kedudukan strategik memandangkan 80 peratus daripada perdagangan China bergerak melalui Selat Melaka manakala 25 peratus daripada bekalan minyak global turut merentas laluan laut yang sama.

“Ini menjadikan Malaysia sebagai lokasi ideal kepada ramai pelabur mempertimbangkan negara ini bagi pelaburan jangka panjang dan penggunaan sumber,” katanya.

Menurut BNM, ekonomi Malaysia diunjurkan berkembang antara 4.0 dan 5.0 peratus pada 2024, disokong oleh permintaan dalam negeri yang terus berkembang dan peningkatan permintaan luaran.

Dalam laporan Tinjauan Ekonomi dan Monetari 2023, bank pusat berkata pertumbuhan akan dipacu oleh perbelanjaan dalam negeri yang berdaya tahan, dengan sokongan tambahan daripada jangkaan pemulihan dalam eksport.

“Pelancongan dijangka terus bertambah baik manakala pelaksanaan projek berbilang tahun yang baharu dan sedia ada oleh sektor swasta dan awam akan menyokong aktiviti pelaburan.

“Bagaimanapun, pertumbuhan dalam negeri masih tertakluk kepada risiko pertumbuhan menjadi perlahan disebabkan oleh faktor luaran dan dalam negeri,” menurut BNM.

Originally published by Berita Harian.

KUALA LUMPUR, 14 Ogos (Bernama) — Kalangan ahli ekonomi yakin Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) Malaysia bagi suku kedua 2024 akan berkembang pada 5.8 peratus berbanding 4.2 peratus pada suku pertama tahun ini.

Mereka berpendapat pertumbuhan KDNK akan dirangsang oleh aktiviti perindustrian yang rancak, harga minyak sawit mentah lebih tinggi, pengangguran yang berkurangan dan peningkatan perbelanjaan.

Ahli ekonomi turut bersetuju ekonomi berada dalam kedudukan baik untuk berkembang antara 4.0 dan 5.0 peratus bagi keseluruhan 2024, dengan badan perakaunan memaklumkan, keyakinan global terhadap Malaysia meningkat dengan ketara berikutan telah mempamerkan daya tahan ekonomi yang jelas.

Ketua Ahli Ekonomi Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid berkata pertumbuhan KDNK suku kedua 2024 akan sejajar dengan unjuran awal Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia (DOSM) sebanyak 5.8 peratus.

Bercakap kepada Bernama, beliau berkata momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi akan berterusan sehingga suku kedua ​​2024, mengatasi pertumbuhan suku pertama 2024 sebanyak 4.2 peratus.

Mohd Afzanizam berkata data semasa menunjukkan ekonomi Malaysia dijangka berkembang baik pada Jun.

Beliau menekankan bahawa negara mencatat pertumbuhan lebih tinggi dalam indeks volum perkhidmatan dan indeks pengeluaran perindustrian, masing-masing meningkat 6.7 peratus dan 4.5 peratus, pada suku kedua 2024.

Beliau berkata pengeluaran minyak sawit mentah naik dua angka kepada 15.9 peratus berbanding 3.4 peratus sebelum ini, menunjukkan peningkatan pendapatan eksport daripada sumber pendapatan komoditi bukan minyak utama negara.

Selain itu, Mohd Afzanizam berkata kadar pengangguran kekal pada 3.3 peratus untuk tiga suku berturut-turut, tetapi jumlah pengangguran susut kepada 557,800 pada suku kedua 2024 daripada 561,100 pada suku pertama 2024.

“Sehubungan itu, pasaran pekerjaan Malaysia mungkin telah mencapai status pekerjaan penuh, menandakan terdapat banyak pekerjaan boleh diisi dan lebih ramai rakyat mempunyai pekerjaan dan meraih pendapatan.

“Pengenalan akaun pengeluaran fleksibel oleh Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja, di samping program pemindahan tunai, akan memungkinkan trajektori pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi dalam tempoh terdekat.

“Sehubungan itu, KDNK suku kedua 2024 sewajarnya lebih tinggi berbanding suku sebelumnya,” kata beliau.

Professor of Practice dan Pengarah Pusat Penyelidikan Perbankan Pusat di Asia School of Business Ozer Karagedikli senada dengan Mohd Afzanizam, sambil menyatakan KDNK yang diunjur berkembang 5.8 peratus, mendorong keyakinan terhadap keteguhan ekonomi negara.

Karagedikli berkata Malaysia mempunyai potensi ekonomi yang besar, justeru kadar pertumbuhan antara 4.0 dan 5.5 peratus mungkin boleh dicapai.

Beliau berkata memandangkan julat berkenaan adalah luas, keadaan sedemikian adalah rumit berikutan untuk mencapai pertumbuhan konsisten hampir enam peratus dijangkakan mencabar.

“Ia tidak semudah itu memandangkan untuk mencapai kadar pertumbuhan yang konsisten hampir 6.0 peratus tahun demi tahun adalah munasabah, tetapi mungkin berdepan cabaran, tanpa pembaharuan ketara untuk meningkatkan produktiviti dan daya saing ekonomi,” katanya.

Sementara itu, Kaji Selidik Situasi Ekonomi Global oleh Persatuan Akauntan Bertauliah Berkanun (ACCA) dan Institut Akauntan Pengurusan mendapati keyakinan akauntan dan profesional kewangan global meningkat terhadap ekonomi Malaysia, terutama bagi suku kedua 2024.

ACCA dalam kenyataan berkata rantau Asia Pasifik, termasuk Malaysia, telah menunjukkan daya tahan yang ketara, memberikan gambaran lebih jelas mengenai hala tuju aliran ekonomi serantau dan keutamaan risiko.

“Malaysia, sebagai sebahagian daripada rantau Asia Pasifik, telah mencerminkan arah aliran positif ini. Sektor pembuatan negara telah menyaksikan peningkatan yang ketara, didorong oleh peningkatan permintaan global dan kemajuan teknologi,” katanya.

Menurutnya tinjauan itu mendapati inisiatif kerajaan Malaysia baru-baru ini untuk merangsang ekonomi digital dan meningkatkan infrastruktur terus menyokong pertumbuhan itu.

 “Dasar utama seperti Aspirasi Pelaburan Nasional dan Pelan Tindakan Ekonomi Digital Malaysia telah memainkan peranan penting dalam memacu daya tahan ekonomi,” katanya.

Ketua Ahli Ekonomi Global Juwai IQI Shan Saeed turut mengunjurkan KDNK bergerak antara 4.0 hingga 4.5 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, didorong oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi Malaysia yang kukuh secara keseluruhan, dalam keadaan ketidaktentuan ekonomi global, risiko geopolitik dan kejatuhan pasaran ekuiti di barat.

Beliau berkata ekonomi global yang tidak menentu telah menyebabkan ekonomi Malaysia kekal sebagai penerima manfaat dan terus menarik pelaburan berikutan pelabur akan berpindah ke negara yang mempunyai pelaburan infrastruktur yang kukuh.

“Penggunaan dan pelaburan (antara petunjuk KDNK) dijangka teguh, sekali gus memperkukuh kestabilan ekonomi. Sementara itu, ketibaan pelancong, teknologi litar bersepadu (ICT), dan eksport komoditi memberi isyarat positif kepada pasaran,” katanya.

Pada 19 Julai, DOSM mengumumkan ekonomi Malaysia diunjurkan berkembang 5.8 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, meningkat daripada 4.2 peratus pada suku sebelumnya serta  pertumbuhan tertinggi sejak suku keempat 2022 yang mencatatkan 7.4 peratus.

Ketua Perangkawan Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin berkata, bagi separuh pertama 2024, KDNK meningkat 5.0 peratus berbanding 4.1 tahun lepas.

Katanya ekonomi Malaysia dijangka meneruskan momentum pertumbuhan, disokong oleh faktor domestik dan didorong oleh eksport, dengan prospek yang positif sepanjang tahun ini.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) akan mengeluarkan data rasmi KDNK suku kedua 2024 pada Jumaat.

Malaysia berada di landasan tepat capai unjuran KDNK 2024

Mohd Afzanizam berpendapat Malaysia berada di landasan yang tepat untuk mencapai unjuran julat KDNK antara 4.0 peratus hingga 5.0 peratus tahun ini.

“Risiko kepada pertumbuhan agak seimbang buat masa ini berikutan ekonomi utama masih berkembang dalam zon positif. Apa yang penting pada masa ini adalah risiko kenaikan yang terhasil daripada rasionalisasi subsidi bahan api, terutama RON95,” katanya.

Selain itu, Mohd Afzanizam berkata pendirian dalam kalangan perniagaan dari segi penetapan harga menunjukkan kecenderungan untuk meningkatkan harga, yang akan diterjemahkan kepada jangkaan inflasi yang lebih tinggi.

“Sehubungan itu, BNM dijangka mengekalkan pendirian dasar monetari semasanya memandangkan ia perlu mencapai keseimbangan yang wajar antara menggalakkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengelak risiko inflasi lebih tinggi.

“Pada 3.00 peratus, OPR dilihat berada pada kedudukan wajar untuk BNM terus menyokong ekonomi,” kata beliau. 

Sementara itu, Shan mengunjurkan KDNK Malaysia pada 2024 menokok daripada 4.3 peratus kepada 4.8 peratus, didorong oleh kestabilan makroekonomi, harga komoditi yang lebih tinggi, tarikan (ICT)/semikonduktor dan geografi yang strategik.

“Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi akan memberi manfaat kepada kerajaan dari segi mengukuhkan bahagian fiskal lembaran imbangan.

Shan berkata, di samping itu, dari segi geografi, Malaysia terletak dalam kedudukan strategik memandangkan 80 peratus daripada perdagangan China bergerak melalui Selat Melaka manakala 25 peratus daripada bekalan minyak global turut merentas laluan laut yang sama.

“Ini menjadikan Malaysia sebagai lokasi ideal kepada ramai pelabur mempertimbangkan negara ini bagi pelaburan jangka panjang dan penggunaan sumber,” katanya.

Menurut BNM, ekonomi Malaysia diunjurkan berkembang antara 4.0 dan 5.0 peratus pada 2024, disokong oleh permintaan dalam negeri yang terus berkembang dan peningkatan permintaan luaran.

Dalam laporan Tinjauan Ekonomi dan Monetari 2023, bank pusat berkata pertumbuhan akan dipacu oleh perbelanjaan dalam negeri yang berdaya tahan, dengan sokongan tambahan daripada jangkaan pemulihan dalam eksport.

“Pelancongan dijangka terus bertambah baik manakala pelaksanaan projek berbilang tahun yang baharu dan sedia ada oleh sektor swasta dan awam akan menyokong aktiviti pelaburan.

“Bagaimanapun, pertumbuhan dalam negeri masih tertakluk kepada risiko pertumbuhan menjadi perlahan disebabkan oleh faktor luaran dan dalam negeri,” menurut BNM.

Originally published by Bernama.

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 14 (Bernama) — Economists agree that Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024 (2Q 2024) will expand by a phenomenal 5.8 per cent from 1Q 2024’s 4.2 per cent.

They said GDP growth will be bolstered by brisk industrial activities, higher crude palm oil prices, fewer unemployed people, and increased spending.

The economists also concur that the economy is well-positioned to expand by between 4.0 and 5.0 per cent for the whole of 2024, with an accounting body stating that global confidence in Malaysia has improved significantly as it has shown notable economic resilience.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said 2Q 2024’s GDP growth would be in line with the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DoSM) advance estimates of 5.8 per cent.

He told Bernama that the economy’s growth momentum would continue into 2Q 2024 beating 1Q 2024’s growth of 4.2 per cent markedly.

Mohd Afzanizam said the prevailing data points suggest Malaysia’s economy is expected to do well in June.

He highlighted that the country recorded higher growth in the volume index of services and the industrial production index, which rose by 6.7 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively, in 2Q 2024.

He added that crude palm oil production has increased by double-digits to 15.9 per cent from 3.4 per cent previously, indicating increased export income from the country’s top non-oil commodity earner.

Besides this, Mohd Afzanizam pointed out that the unemployment rate has remained at 3.3 per cent for three consecutive quarters, but the number of unemployed individuals has declined to 557,800 in 2Q 2024 from 561,100 in 1Q 2024.

“On that note, Malaysia’s employment markets may have reached full employment status, meaning there are plenty of jobs to be found and more people have jobs and have been receiving income.

“The introduction of flexible withdrawal accounts by the Employees Provident Fund, along with cash transfer programmes, will allow for a higher growth trajectory in the immediate terms.

“Hence, 2Q 2024’s GDP should be higher than the previous quarter,” he said.

Ozer Karagedikli, professor of practice and director of the Central Banking Research Centre at Asia School of Business, agreed with Mohd Afzanizam, saying GDP is estimated to expand by 5.8 per cent, fostering optimism over the nation’s economic strength.

Karagedikli said Malaysia’s economic potential is substantial, and a growth rate between 4.0 and 5.5 per cent can be achieved.

He said the range is wide and cautioned that the situation is complex because achieving consistent growth close to six per cent might be challenging.

“It is not so simple as achieving consistent growth rates close to 6.0 per cent year after year is possible but might prove challenging without significant reforms to enhance the economy’s productivity and competitiveness,” he said.

Meanwhile, the latest Global Economic Conditions Survey by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and Institute of Management Accountants found a slight improvement in global confidence among accountants and finance professionals in Malaysia’s economy, especially for 2Q 2024.

In a statement, the ACCA said that the Asia Pacific region, including Malaysia, has shown notable resilience, providing key insights into regional economic trends and risk priorities.

“Malaysia, as part of the Asia Pacific region, has mirrored these positive trends. The country’s manufacturing sector has seen a notable uptick, driven by increased global demand and advancements in technology,” it said. 

The ACCA said the survey found that the Malaysian government’s recent initiatives to boost the digital economy and enhance infrastructure have further supported the growth.

“Key policies such as the National Investment Aspirations and the Malaysia Digital Economy Blueprint have been instrumental in driving economic resilience,” it added.

Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed also expects GDP to hover between 4.0 to 4.5 per cent in 2Q 2024, driven by Malaysia’s overall solid economic growth amid global economic uncertainties, geopolitical risk and the collapse of equity markets in the West. 

He said global economic uncertainties have led Malaysia’s economy to remain a beneficiary and continue to attract investment as investors would move to countries where infrastructure investment is solid. 

“Consumption and investment (among the indicators of GDP) are expected to be strong, bolstering economic stability. Meanwhile, tourists’ arrival, integrated circuit technology (ICT), and commodities exports are sending positive signals to the market,” he said.

On July 19, DoSM reported an estimated 5.8 per cent expansion in 2Q 2024, up from 4.2 per cent in the previous quarter and the highest growth since 7.4 per cent in 4Q 2022.

For the first half of 2024, chief statistician Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin said GDP rose by 5.0 per cent versus 4.1 a year ago, and Malaysia’s economy is expected to continue its growth momentum, supported by domestic and export-driven factors, with a positive outlook for the rest of the year.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will release the official 2Q 2024 GDP data on Friday.

Malaysia on track to meet 2024 GDP forecast

Mohd Afzanizam opined that Malaysia is on track to meet its range forecast for its GDP of between 4.0 per cent to 5.0 per cent this year.

“Risks to growth are fairly balanced for now, given that the major economies are still growing in a positive territory. What matters now is the upside risk arising from the rationalisation of fuel subsidies, especially on RON95,” he said.

Additionally, Mohd Afzanizam said the pricing behaviour among businesses indicated a tendency for prices to be raised, which would translate into an expectation of higher inflation.

“On that note, the BNM is expected to keep its current monetary policy stance at status as it needs to strike the right balance between promoting economic growth and keeping the risks of higher inflation at bay.

“At 3.00 per cent, the OPR appears to be at the right spot for BNM to remain supportive of the economy,” he added.

Meanwhile, Shan foresees Malaysia’s 2024 GDP edging up from 4.3 per cent to 4.8 per cent, which is supported by macroeconomic stability, higher commodity prices, ICT/semiconductor attraction, and ⁠strategic geography.

“Higher oil prices would benefit the government in terms of consolidating the fiscal side of the balance sheet.

“ICT demand is growing globally. Malaysia is in a perfect position to supply more, thus creating jobs and more revenue for companies and helping the GDP growth at the macro level,” he said.

Additionally, Shan said that geographically, Malaysia is located at a strategic point as 80 per cent of China’s trade moves through the Strait of Malacca, while 25 per cent of global oil supplies also pass through the same seaway.

“This makes Malaysia an ideal location for many investors to consider the country for long-term investment and resource deployment,” he said.

According to BNM, the Malaysian economy is projected to grow between 4.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent in 2024, underpinned by continued expansion in domestic demand and improvement in external demand.

In its Economic and Monetary Review 2023 report, the central bank said growth will be driven by resilient domestic expenditure, with additional support from the expected recovery in exports.

“Tourism is expected to improve further while implementing new and ongoing multi-year projects by both the private and public sectors would support investment activity. 

“Nevertheless, domestic growth remains subject to downside risks from both external and domestic factors,” BNM added.

Originally published by Bernama.

KUALA LUMPUR: Unjuran awal Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) Malaysia yang menunjukkan ekonomi berkembang 5.8 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, mendorong keyakinan terhadap keteguhan ekonomi negara, kata Profesor Ozer Karagedikli (bergambar).

Karagedikli yang juga Professor of Praxtice dan Pengarah Pusat Penyelidikan Perbankan Pusat di Asia School of Business (ASB) itu berkata, Malaysia mempunyai potensi ekonomi yang besar, justeru kadar pertumbuhan ini mungkin tercapai.

Read the full article HERE.
Originally published by Utusan Sarawak.

KUALA LUMPUR: Advance estimates for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) suggest the economy expanded by 5.8 per cent in the second quarter (2Q) of 2024, fostering optimism about the nation’s economic strength, according to Professor Ozer Karagedikli.

Karagedikli, professor of practice and director of the Central Banking Research Centre at Asia School of Business (ASB), noted that Malaysia’s economic potential is substantial and this growth rate appears achievable.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that the situation is complex.

“It is not simple. My assessment is that Malaysia’s trend growth rate is likely in the range of 4.0 and 5.5 per cent, which is a wide range in itself.

“Achieving consistent growth rates close to 6.0 per cent year after year is possible but might prove challenging without significant reforms to enhance the economy’s productivity and competitiveness,” he said in a statement. – Bernama

Originally published by The Borneo Post

KUALA LUMPUR: Unjuran awal Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) Malaysia yang menunjukkan ekonomi berkembang 5.8 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, mendorong keyakinan terhadap keteguhan ekonomi negara, kata Profesor Ozer Karagedikli.

Karagedikli yang juga Professor of Practicedan Pengarah Pusat Penyelidikan Perbankan Pusat di Asia School of Business (ASB) itu berkata, Malaysia mempunyai potensi ekonomi yang besar, justeru kadar pertumbuhan ini mungkin boleh dicapai.

Bagaimanapun, beliau dalam kenyataan hari ini menegaskan situasi ini adalah kompleks.

“Ini tidak mudah. Penilaian saya adalah trend kadar pertumbuhan Malaysia mungkin berada dalam julat 4.0 hingga 5.5 peratus, iaitu julat yang luas.

“Mencapai kadar pertumbuhan yang konsisten hampir 6.0 peratus tahun demi tahun adalah munasabah, tetapi mungkin menghadapi cabaran tanpa pembaharuan ketara untuk meningkatkan produktiviti dan daya saing ekonomi,” katanya.

Beliau turut menekankan ketidaktentuan ekonomi global boleh menimbulkan risiko kepada prospek ekonomi Malaysia.

“Angka KDNK terkini mewujudkan banyak aspek untuk dibincangkan oleh ahli ekonomi sektor kewangan.

“Bagaimanapun, bagi pembuat dasar dan orang ramai, cabaran sebenar terletak dari segi mengekalkan kadar pertumbuhan itu dari masa ke masa. Ini adalah sesuatu yang kita harapkan,” kata Karagedikli.

Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia (DOSM) pada 19 Julai mengumumkan ekonomi Malaysia diunjurkan berkembang 5.8 peratus pada suku kedua 2024, meningkat daripada 4.2 peratus pada suku sebelumnya.

Ia merupakan pertumbuhan tertinggi sejak suku keempat 2022 yang mencatatkan 7.4 peratus.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) dijangka mengumumkan data rasmi KDNK suku kedua 2024 pada Jumaat.

Originally published by Berita Harian.

KUALA LUMPUR: Advance estimates for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) suggest the economy expanded by 5.8 per cent in the second quarter (2Q) of 2024, fostering optimism about the nation’s economic strength, according to Professor Ozer Karagedikli.

Karagedikli, professor of practice and director of the Central Banking Research Centre at Asia School of Business (ASB), noted that Malaysia’s economic potential is substantial and this growth rate appears achievable.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that the situation is complex.

“It is not simple. My assessment is that Malaysia’s trend growth rate is likely in the range of 4.0 and 5.5 per cent, which is a wide range in itself.

“Achieving consistent growth rates close to 6.0 per cent year after year is possible but might prove challenging without significant reforms to enhance the economy’s productivity and competitiveness,” he said in a statement.

He also pointed out that global economic uncertainties might pose risks to Malaysia’s economic outlook.

“The latest GDP figure offers much for financial sector economists to discuss.

“However, for policymakers and the broader public, the real challenge lies in sustaining such growth rates over time. That is something we all hope for,” Karagedikli added.

On July 19, the Department of Statistics Malaysia reported an estimated 5.8 per cent expansion in 2Q 2024, up from 4.2 per cent in the previous quarter and the highest growth since 7.4 per cent in 4Q 2022.

Bank Negara Malaysia is set to release the official 2Q 2024 GDP data on Friday.

Originally published by Bernama.

The financial demands of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 present a challenge unparalleled in human history. While infrastructure fi- nance was the previous big-ticket financing scheme to grab every- one’s attention, the scale of investment needed for net zero far exceeds anything we have seen before. The transformation required to decarbonise our global economy necessitates not only substantial capital but also innovative financial mechanisms and a fundamental shift in thinking.

Comparing financial needs: Infrastructure versus net zero

Just over a decade ago, the McKinsey Glob- al Institute estimated that US$57 trillion would be required for global infrastructure investments from 2013 to 2030, translat- ing into an annual spend of US$3.3 tril- lion. Southeast Asia alone needed US$800 billion per year between 2010 and 2020. Despite these vast sums, a 2018 update revealed a 10% funding gap for sanctioned projects in Asia.

In stark contrast, the financial require- ments for achieving net zero are even more daunting. According to McKinsey’s Net Zero Transition report (January 2022), about US$9.2 trillion annually is needed for in- vestments in energy and land use systems from 2023 to 2050. This figure represents about 7.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP), equivalent to half of all corporate profits and a quarter of all tax revenues in 2020. The financial burden is enormous, demanding unprecedented collaboration between the public and private sectors.

The urgency of climate action

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is critical to preventing the most severe and irreversible impact of climate change. Achieving this goal involves capping future net emissions of carbon dioxide at 570 gigatonnes from 2018 onwards and reaching net zero emissions by 2050. At current emission rates, the world will exceed this target by 2031.

Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and large-scale decarbonisa- tion efforts, supported by signifi- cant economic incentives. This ne- cessitates fundamental changes in various sectors, including energy, agriculture and transport.Compa- nies must invest heavily in decar- bonisation technologies, and high carbon footprint individuals must adapt their lifestyle.

Borrowing our approach instead of reinventing the wheel

To achieve net zero, we need effective finan- cial strategies for food, forestry and carbon capture, along with sector reforms. Even with rapid fossil fuel emission reductions, deforestation must decrease by 75% by 2030. Large-scale, nature-based carbon removal, like reforestation and restoring peatlands and seagrass, is essential. An acre of ocean seagrass can sequester 335kg of carbon an- nually, and the world’s peatlands seques- ter about 370 billion kilograms annually, or 500kg per acre. Peat soils contain more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosys- tem, highlighting the importance of pre- serving and restoring these carbon sinks.

There could perhaps be a review of the way in which the carbon experts issue cred- its, which currently focuses on “addition- ality”- the process of issuing credits for carbon-reducing activities that wouldn’t occur without the carbon credit market. Drawing from a financial economics analogy, equilibrium implies no ar- bitrage. Conversely, if arbitrage exists, there is no equilibrium. Applying this logic, existing conservation efforts in seagrass meadows, forest reserves and peatlands should also qualify for carbon credits. This expanded definition would leverage their immense potential in carbon sequestration.

Innovative financing models

Meeting the financial demands of net zero requires innovative “blended financing” models that leverage both public and private capital. One such model is the Managed Co-Lending Portfolio Programme (MCPP) by the In- ternational Finance Corporation (IFC).This syndication lending structure, supported by credit enhancements such as first-loss guarantees, enables the IFC to co-invest in a portfolio of loans on infrastructure projects with institutional investors. The recent launch of the MCPP One Planet facil- ity focuses on climate-smart investments aligned with the Paris Agreement.

Another example is the IFC/Amundi Green Cornerstone Bond Fund, which chan- nels capital from institutional investors into sustainable bond issuances in developing countries. Blended finance approach lev- erages public or multilateral development bank (MDB) capital to attract significantly more private investment. The IFC-Amundi structured fund, for instance, attracted 16 times as much private investment, demon- strating the effectiveness of this model.

Establishing a carbon credit market

To further support net zero financing, establishing an ESG-compliant auction market for carbon credits is essential. This platform should promote spot trading of standardised carbon credit contracts that adhere to leading international stand- ards, such as the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS).Standardised contracts could bundle credits from various projects, including nature-based solutions. A liquid trading platform would allow for the efficient exchange of carbon credits, with prices varying from US$0.02 per kilogram in emerging exchanges to as high as US$0.10 per kilogram in the European Union’s emissions trading schemes.

Digitalising carbon credits through se- curity tokens could democratise access, allowing retail investors to participate in and trade these assets, protecting existing carbon sinks while funding reforestation, seagrass transplantation and peatland res- toration projects.

Achieving net zero is an extraordinary challenge that requires a comprehensive, multifaceted approach. By leveraging in- novative financing models that go beyond goodwill and donations, enhancing carbon credit markets and encouraging green investments, we can mobilise the nec- essary resources to transform our global economy. Malaysia, with its strengths in shariah-compliant financial instruments, institutions and blended finance, is well po- sitioned to lead the way.A concerted effort from governments, the private sector and academia is crucial to establishing sound financial policies and sustainable invest- ment vehicles that will guide us towards a net zero future.

Originally published by The Edge.

Fourier’s GR-1 humanoid robots are displayed on Thursday during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai, China, on July 4, 2024. (AFP/AFP)

Quaternary education is the fourth level of education following an undergraduate degree, or to put it simply, postgraduate study.

Asia School of Business CEO Sanjay Sarma said Indonesia needed to develop the quaternary education sector in the country to better equip the working- age population against generational challenges.

Quaternary education is the fourth level of education following an undergraduate degree, or to put it simply, postgraduate study. 

“Technology changes so fundamentally, AI’s [artificial intelligence] impact on the economy is going to be very significant, and that’s not the only technology that’s changing the economy,” he told The Jakarta Post on Aug. 1, saying that the quaternary system had huge potential because everyone was migrating jobs.

“Even biotech is changing the economy in ways that you probably don’t realize. So the rest of the world is also struggling. But Indonesia has an opportunity […] because of its demographic dividend. So it’s gold. Invest in a gold mine.”

Most Indonesians do not go to universities, with roughly 30 percent of the population having studied at this level, according to Statistics Indonesia data from 2023. Elementary to senior high school fared better, with between 86 and 100 percent participation.

Tertiary and quaternary education have been largely limited to households within the highest tier out of five expenditure groups in Indonesia, with participation reaching over 50 percent, whereas those from the lowest tier only saw around 17 percent gaining a university-level education, according to Statistics Indonesia data.

However, Sarma said “money is not the issue” when it comes to innovating education, but vision.

“A good university is going to act like a start-up. It’s a mentality. It’s the entrepreneurial mindset where you’re probing the unknown,” he said, suggesting Indonesia adopt a two-pronged strategy to develop its quaternary education secretary.

First, the country could start with exploratory and experimental licenses as well as incentives “to change the game” in the educational system, Sarma said. Second, the government could take a couple of public universities and create sandboxes.

“Where they change the game, where they create a program that is within, where they teach engineering completely differently. This is a known model,” he explained.

“Start-ups and education are intertwined. Behave like a start- up, use technology created by start-ups, create start-ups.”

Living MIT graduates who have started and built for-profit companies do not qualify as a nation. However, if they did, they’d be the world’s 10th largest economy, with gross revenue ranking between Russia and India’s GDP of $2.097 trillion and $1.877 trillion, respectively, according to a report released by MIT in 2015.

As of 2014, the report estimates, MIT alumni have launched 30,200 active companies, employing roughly 4.6 million people, and generating roughly $1.9 trillion in annual revenue.

Originally published by The Jakarta Post.

Cover Trust enhances employee engagement, supports active learning, encourages ESG efforts, and fosters a positive attitude toward technological advancements, according to a survey by PwC Malaysia and ASB (Photo: Thirdman from Pexels)

It’s widely known that trust in a work setting acts as the cornerstone of effective leadership, cohesive teamwork, and a productive work environment. To that end, a recent comprehensive study conducted by PwC Malaysia and the ASB has shed light on the intricate dynamics of trust in the workplace, offering valuable insights for both employees and employers.

As part of the Building Trust Awards 2023, PwC Malaysia and ASB ran a survey between August 14 and September 8, 2023, with more than 11,000 respondents from their finalist companies and found that building a high-trust organisation is not merely an ethical imperative but a strategic advantage. Trust enhances employee engagement, supports active learning, encourages environmental sustainability (ESG) efforts, and fosters a positive attitude toward technological advancements. 

By prioritising fairness, transparency, and respect, organisations can create a work environment where trust thrives, ultimately leading to enhanced performance and a more cohesive corporate culture. Employers must recognise the multifaceted nature of trust and strive to address the unique needs and perceptions of their diverse workforce. By doing so, they can leverage trust as a powerful motivational force, driving both individual and organisational success.

Here are more key findings from PwC Malaysia and ASB’s Trust & Leadership Survey Study 2023.

The essence of trust