Research Publication Database

TitleProfessorDiscipline
A Composite Forecast Approach for Market Demand Using Regression with Simulation to Predict the Palm Oil MarketThere is a dearth of literature with econometric models that use a combination of different forecasting approaches to make predictions for market demand especially for commodity products. Procurement needs for many products for example bleaching earth that is used in the refinement of crude palm oil as an example depend directly on the forecast of palm oil. This research develops an econometric model to determine the market size with crude palm oil as an example in the context of Indonesian market. Key factors of market demand such as production and consumption factors, factors determining export and import of crude palm oil and biodiesel consumption factors, in the context of palm oil are identified from existing literature and case studies. A multilinear regression approach with time series analysis is used to study the interaction of these factors, modelling their behaviour and predicting their coefficients in determining the overall market size.Asad AtaSustainability
Insights from GAP Execution for Yield Intensification Among Independent Smallholder Farmer for Oil PalmOil palm productivity today is well below its actual potential worldwide and much more so with Independent Smallholder (ISH) farmers. The national average oil yield in Malaysia remains at the 3 to 4 tons per hectare level, with growth in palm oil production in the last three decades having come mainly from increased area cultivated. The ISH sector contributes a total of 16.8% of the total area of palm plantations in Malaysia. This study looks at encouragement of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) implementation to drive sustainable yield intensification in ISH farms, leading to better ISH livelihoods that alleviate their cost burden for certification to sustainable production standards that discourage deforestation and opening of new land for oil palm cultivation. In large plantations, decades of field experimentation have led to the development of GAP proven to drive yield improvement, but similar work is lacking for oil palm ISH. The GAP of large growers may also not be directly applicable or easily transferable to ISH whose farms are very small and discontinuous, and who have low capital and limited access to resources and knowledge. In this study, we set out to assess the impact of selected GAP that we considered most relevant for ISH in our project area, as well as the challenges faced by the participating ISH in implementing and sustaining the GAP in their farms. We measured the impact of the implemented GAP on fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield and sales revenue in a group of ISH farms, called Learning Farms (LeFa), by comparison against a group of similar farms where normal practices of ISH continued. The status of implementation and maintenance of GAP in the LeFa was assessed in periodic field audits. Key insights were gained on the ability of ISH to implement the GAP. While GAP implementation was below par, the impact on FFB yield and sales revenue showed promiseAsad Ata, Kee En Lim, Vasagi Ramachandran, Muhilan Ratnam, Rizal Mohamad, Aiman Hashim, Chua Soon Tat, Hanafi MansorSustainability
Achieving Sustainable Development Goals – An NDPE and Certification Strategy for Independent Smallholder Farmers for Oil PalmMillions of smallholders depend on palm oil for their livelihoods, but their adaptation to sustainable agriculture practices are hindered by access to resources, knowledge, and awareness of sustainability. Addressing these challenges required an integrated approach to engaging in complex sustainability issues while empowering stakeholders. The Center for Sustainable Small-owners (CSS) was established to facilitate and empower Independent Smallholders (ISH) in promoting ethical and responsible production of oil palm with a commitment to no deforestation, no new plantation on peatlands, and no exploitation (NDPE) in the supply chain. The CSS approach is to execute it through two strategies i.e., empowering communities, ensuring sustainability through certification and compliance building farmer associations to safeguard their interests, and sourcing responsibly ensuring ethical and sustainable oil palm production while improving livelihoods through yield intensification. The research aims to demonstrate how through such initiatives CSS has been able to support sustainable development goals (SDG). Through the following six activities viz. Traceability and Verification, Training, Certification and Compliance, Livelihood Improvement, Community Development, and Monitoring and Guidance. CSS contributes directly to SDG 2, 8, 12, 15, and 17.Asad Ata, Kee En Lim, Vasagi Ramachandran, Yusof Nursaiyidah, Muhilan RatnamSustainability
ESG Practice in ASEAN & Korea: Pathways Towards SustainabilityIn recent years, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) has emerged as crucial metrics of evaluating the sustainability and ethical impact of business and investment, gaining significant prominence in the global business landscape. The adoption of ESG practices and adaptability to evolving regulations, albeit not an entirely novel concept, has now assumed paramount importance for businesses striving to thrive in the era of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Today, the integration of ESG principles is not merely a commendable initiative but an imperative, serving as a foundational criterion for the successful operation of businesses committed to making a positive impact.Asia School of Business ASEAN Research Center, Malaysia, Korea University ASEAN Center, KoreaSustainability
An Energy Justice Index for The Energy Transition in The Global SouthMiddle-income economies such as Malaysia, which are integrated into global value chains, have both significant domestic carbon emissions as well as sizeable opportunities for nature-based carbon offsets. While they face pressures to reduce carbon emissions from their international trade and investment partners, these countries are also ineligible for official development aid, and they therefore need to mobilize domestic funds to finance reductions in carbon emissions. Malaysia launched a domestic Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) in December 2022 as part of the government’s climate change policies. The VCM appears to have been implemented relatively quickly, having only been announced in September 2021. This paper traces the origins of the VCM and analyzes the economic and regulatory context of the market in terms of the domestic supply and demand for carbon credits in Malaysia. The analysis reveals that Malaysia, as a middle-income economy that has significant potential for nature-based carbon offsets, faces a number of unique domestic political-economic challenges involving carbon trading, which are not faced by high-income economies nor by low-income economies.Renato Lima-de-OliveiraEnergy Justice
Malaysia’s New Voluntary Carbon Market: Origins, Ecosystem and ProspectsMiddle-income economies such as Malaysia, which are integrated into global value chains, have both significant domestic carbon emissions as well as sizeable opportunities for nature-based carbon offsets. While they face pressures to reduce carbon emissions from their international trade and investment partners, these countries are also ineligible for official development aid, and they therefore need to mobilize domestic funds to finance reductions in carbon emissions. Malaysia launched a domestic Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) in December 2022 as part of the government’s climate change policies. The VCM appears to have been implemented relatively quickly, having only been announced in September 2021. This paper traces the origins of the VCM and analyzes the economic and regulatory context of the market in terms of the domestic supply and demand for carbon credits in Malaysia. The analysis reveals that Malaysia, as a middle-income economy that has significant potential for nature-based carbon offsets, faces a number of unique domestic political-economic challenges involving carbon trading, which are not faced by high-income economies nor by low-income economies.Pieter E. Stek, Thessa Vasudhevan, Renato Lima-de-OliveiraPublic Policy
Science and Engineering Knowledge Production in ASEAN: Global Emergence, Fading RegionalismThe policy recommendations presented in this policy brief were developed in cooperation with Malaysian energy experts during two stakeholder workshops held in November 2021 with 22 participants from various sectors, including the finance sector, think-tanks, civil society and NGOs, industry, and academia. The Malaysian energy system was modelled by the ISIGET research team of the IASS Potsdam using stakeholder-driven Cross Impact Balance Analysis to determine factors preventing or facilitating a sustainable energy future. The subsequent succession analysis reveals the factors that need to be addressed in order to trigger changes in the entire modelled system. The recommendations discussed by the Malaysian experts are based on the results of the succession analysis, which suggests that a trajectory change would require action across multiple fields to break up established decision-making patterns, liberalise the energy market, and channel post-pandemic recovery measures and long-term development plans towards green growth. More details on the method will be available in a forthcoming study.Pieter E. StekPublic Policy
Can becoming a leader change your personality? An investigation with two longitudinal studies from a role-based perspective.We use administrative data from New Zealand and exploit regional variations to evaluate the predictive power for wage dynamics of the job-finding and job-to-job transition rates. We find that the job-finding rate from unemployment plays a role in describing the wage dynamics of newly hired workers even after controlling for the job-to-job transition rate. The wages of new hires are much more responsive to both transition rates than the wages of job stayers. We then distinguish between the new hires transitioning from employment (job switchers) and the new hires coming from unemployment. The wages of job switchers are primarily related to the pace of job-to-job reallocation and less significantly to the jobfinding rate. The wages of new hires from unemployment are exclusively linked to the jobfinding rate and this association is stronger at the lower half of the wage distribution. The wages of new hires from unemployment are more responsive to the job-finding rate than the wages of job stayers. The job-to-job transition rate has no impact on the wage dynamics of job stayers once the job-finding rate and the transition rate from inactivity to employment are controlled for.Michael FresePsychology
How wages respond to the job-finding and job-to-job transition rates? Evidence from New Zealand Administrative Data (forthcoming, 2024) International Journal of Central Banking, with Christopher Ball, Nicohas Grosheny, Muraz Ozbilgin and Finn RobinsonWe use administrative data from New Zealand and exploit regional variations to evaluate the predictive power for wage dynamics of the job-finding and job-to-job transition rates. We find that the job-finding rate from unemployment plays a role in describing the wage dynamics of newly hired workers even after controlling for the job-to-job transition rate. The wages of new hires are much more responsive to both transition rates than the wages of job stayers. We then distinguish between the new hires transitioning from employment (job switchers) and the new hires coming from unemployment. The wages of job switchers are primarily related to the pace of job-to-job reallocation and less significantly to the jobfinding rate. The wages of new hires from unemployment are exclusively linked to the jobfinding rate and this association is stronger at the lower half of the wage distribution. The wages of new hires from unemployment are more responsive to the job-finding rate than the wages of job stayers. The job-to-job transition rate has no impact on the wage dynamics of job stayers once the job-finding rate and the transition rate from inactivity to employment are controlled for.Ozer KaragedikliEconomics
Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2022), Australian Economic Review, Vol 55(1), pp. 141-154, joint with Gunda-Alexandra Detmers and Sui-Jade HoWe study how individuals' formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we find that policies aimed at containing the pandemic lead to an increase in individuals' inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty. We also find some heterogeneity in the impact across different demographic groups.Ozer KaragedikliEconomics
Quantitative vs Qualitative Forward Guidance: Does It Matter? (2021), Economic Record, Volume 97, Issue 319, pp. 491-503, joint with Gunda-Alexandra Detmers and Richhild MoessnerEvery monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is accompanied by a written statement about the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We exploit this difference to study the relative influences of qualitative and quantitative forward guidance. We find that announcements that include an interest rate forecast and announcements that only include written statements lead to very similar market reactions across the yield curve. Our results imply that central bank communication is important, but that the exact form of that communication is less critical.Ozer KaragedikliEconomics
Inflation Expectations and Low Inflation in New Zealand (2018), New Zealand Economic Papers, with D J McDermott, Volume 52, Issue 3, pages 277-288.This paper finds that the changing behaviour of inflation expectations can explain much of the unusually low inflation in New Zealand. Across several empirical specifications of the Phillips curve, we observe that inflation expectations have become more backward-looking. We also find that the speed of adjustment in inflation expectations, proxied by the spread between short- and longer-term inflation expectations, can explain the unusually low inflation.Ozer KaragedikliEconomics
Unlocking a Low-Carbon Future for MalaysiaThe policy recommendations presented in this policy brief were developed in cooperation with Malaysian energy experts during two stakeholder workshops held in November 2021 with 22 participants from various sectors, including the finance sector, think-tanks, civil society and NGOs, industry, and academia. The Malaysian energy system was modelled by the ISIGET research team of the IASS Potsdam using stakeholder-driven Cross Impact Balance Analysis to determine factors preventing or facilitating a sustainable energy future. The subsequent succession analysis reveals the factors that need to be addressed in order to trigger changes in the entire modelled system. The recommendations discussed by the Malaysian experts are based on the results of the succession analysis, which suggests that a trajectory change would require action across multiple fields to break up established decision-making patterns, liberalise the energy market, and channel post-pandemic recovery measures and long-term development plans towards green growth. More details on the method will be available in a forthcoming study.Renato Lima de OliveiraPublic Policy
Industry 4.0 Technology Adoption in Malaysian Manufacturing: Strategies for Enhancing CompetitivenessNew technologies related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0) are driving changes in global value chains (GVCs). These changes are already impacting Malaysia which has been deindustrializing and losing its competitive advantage in labour-intensive manufacturing to neighbouring countries, which offer lower labour cost while they are quickly improving their infrastructure. While this is a general trend for Malaysia, a notable exception is the state of Pulau Pinang, which has maintained its industrial base and shifted towards high-technology manufacturing. The research findings suggest that IR 4.0 technology adoption are used to improve productivity and quality, and rely on close collaboration with local technology suppliers. The development of local technology suppliers is an area in which Malaysia can move up to higher value-added activities within the GVC, including R&D and design. Importantly, workers are generally receptive to IR 4.0 technologies, as it improves the quality of their work. However, these technologies can also reduce employment for low-skilled repetitive work, which is an area in which Malaysia’s manufacturing competitiveness is already declining. To achieve successful IR 4.0 technology deployment, manufacturing firms need government support, especially in the area of skills and training, both to upskill current workers, and to ensure new workers have the right educational foundation. Training programs initiated by industry, but funded by government, appear to be successful in addressing some of the skills gaps. Viewed more broadly, the improving quality of work and increased productivity due to IR4.0 technology adoption, could play a role in making small- and medium-sized manufacturers more attractive as employers. This would help them hire and retain skilled Malaysian workers, who might otherwise opt to work for multinationals, or overseas. Renato Lima de Oliveira, Tan Zhai Gen, Deborah Chow, Vaisnavi Mogan RaoPublic Policy
Nungsari, M., Ngu, K., Wong, D. N., Chin, J. W., Chee, S. Y., Wong, X. S., & Flanders, S. (2022). Translating entrepreneurial intention to behaviour amongst micro and small entrepreneurs. Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies.This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersEconomics
Nungsari, M., Wong, D., Wei, C. J., Kirjane, N., Yee, C. S., Flanders, S., & Shian, P. Y. (2022). Perceptions of entrepreneurship and online learning during the coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Entrepreneurship Education and Pedagogy, 251512742211047.This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersEconomics
Nungsari, M., Ngu, K., Chin, J. W., & Flanders, S. (2021). The formation of youth entrepreneurial intention in an emerging economy: The interaction between psychological traits and socioeconomic factors. Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies.This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersEconomics
Abdul Aziz, N. I., Flanders, S., & Nungsari, M. (2022, September 26). Social Expectations and government incentives in Malaysia's COVID-19 vaccine uptake. PLOS ONE, 17(9), e0275010.This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersEconomics
Nungsari, M., Hui Yin, C., Fong, N., & Pillai, V. (2021). An agency mapping of marginalized communities and aid providers during the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. Wellcome Open Research, 6, 323This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Melati NungsariEconomics
Nungsari, M., Hui Yin, C., Fong, N., & Pillai, V. (2022). Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on vulnerable populations in Malaysia through an ethical lens: A study of non-state actors involved in aid distribution. Wellcome Open Research, 6, 263This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Melati NungsariEconomics
Ng, S. C., Chuah, H. Y., & Nungsari, M. (2022). A voice for the silent: Uncovering service exclusion practices. Journal of Services Marketing.This paper aims to provide an in-depth conceptualization of service exclusion by drawing on our exploratory research as well as thick and rich insights from the authors’ qualitative data.Sylvia Ng, Melati NungsariMarketing
Mizen, P., Packer, F., Remolona, E., & Tsoukas, S. (2021). Original sin in corporate finance: New evidence from Asian Bond issuers in onshore and offshore markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 119, 102489.In a marketplace characterised by more demanding and more active customers, both academics and practitioners have become increasingly drawn to the concept of customer engagement (CE). Eli RemolonaEconomics, Finance
De jure benchmark bondsAs the most liquid of instruments, benchmark bonds play an important role in price discovery. Where markets fail to create them, however, can governments do so? In Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, authorities have designated specific bonds as benchmarks. We measure these bonds’ liquidity and find that they succeed as benchmarks about 55% of the time. In contrast to the experience of large advanced markets, our estimates suggest that choosing on-the-run issues as de jure benchmark bonds is a poor strategy. Instead, what leads to success in emerging markets is choosing seasoned bonds that already have a record of superior liquidity.Eli Remolona, James YetmanPublic Policy
Norms, Trust, and Increasing Vaccine Registration in Malaysia - Preliminary ResultsThis report summarizes preliminary findings from a survey experiment with 1307 Malaysian respondents. We study 1) trust levels in institutions and norms surrounding the choice to get vaccinated in this country, 2) perceptions on state “carrots” versus “sticks” in incentivizing vaccinations, and 3) whether a cash lottery of RM 500 is an effective intervention to increase the number of registrations for vaccinations. Although our sample is not representative of the entire Malaysian society, they are suggestive and can provide some insights on incentivizing pro-social behaviour with regards to vaccination. Specifically, we found that incentives can encourage vaccine registration.Melati Nungsari, Sam Flanders, N. Izzatina Abdul Aziz, Chin Kar Yern, Shenyi Chua, Tan Zhai Gen, Fatin Nadhirah Binti JamalolailPublic Policy
Business Shutdowns and COVID-19 MortalityThis paper zooms in on business shutdowns and investigates their effectiveness in reducing mortality. We leverage upon highly granular death registry data for over 4,000 Italian municipalities in a diff-in-diff approach that allows us to credibly mitigate endogeneity concerns. Gabriele CiminelliEconomics
Ng, S. C., Sweeney, J. C., & Plewa, C. (2020). Customer engagement: A systematic review and Future Research Priorities. Australasian Marketing Journal, 28(4), 235–252. In a marketplace characterised by more demanding and more active customers, both academics and practitioners have become increasingly drawn to the concept of customer engagement (CE). Sylvia NgMarketing
Digital Transformation: Some Implications for Financial and Macroeconomic StabilityVirtual AI-assisted financial intermediation is challenging financial intermediation and payment services that are based on personal contacts. Digital transformation is changing how and by whom financial services are provided, how payments are made within an economy and across borders, and how and where goods and services are produced in a globalized economy. These transformations bring significant benefits in the form of greater variety and convenience of financial services, faster speed of payment transactions, and more efficient production processes. But there are also potential costs. Traditional commercial banking models are challenged by unregulated FinTech and BigTech firms, possibly threatening systemic financial stability. Globalization of production processes has led to greater spillovers of economic fluctuations across borders, thereby complicating macroeconomic policy decisions.Hans GenbergEconomics, Finance
The COVID-19 Hardship Survey: An Evaluation of the Prihatin Rakyat Economic Stimulus PackageThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global crisis, and, while Malaysia has controlled the infection more than most countries with early exposure to the virus, the Movement Control Order (MCO) has required major economic sacrifices. This, in addition to a COVID-19-caused global economic slowdown, threatens a budget crisis for Malaysian households.Sam Flanders, Melati NungsariPublic Policy
COVID-19 in Italy: an Analysis of Death Registry DataWe analyze daily death registry data for a sample of 1,161 Italian municipalities in the 7 regions most severely hit by COVID-19. Daily deaths almost tripled in the first thirty days since the onset. Overall, COVID-19 might have killed 0.1% of the local population in just forty days. Gabriele CiminelliPublic Policy
Lima-de-Oliveira, R. (2016). Government and Politics in Brazil: Latin America in Focus Series. (A. Luciado de Andrade Tosta & E. F. Coutinho, Eds.). ABC-Clio, LCC.The energy industry is changing fast and in multiple directions with important consequences for energy-rich countries. Malaysia is also experiencing unprecedented political changes with the election of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition in May 9 of 2018, the first alternation of power since the country independence.Renato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science
Ariyathugun, Triwit, 2020. “Interest on Excess Reserves Policy and Asset Prices”, mimeo.Since 2008, the Federal Reserve System began paying interest on reserves balances held by financial institutions. My work examines the effects of this monetary policy on asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. To do so, I develop a dynamic heterogeneous-agent asset pricing model in which banks take leverage by borrowing from households. Banks have a choice of depositing reserves with the government.Triwit AriyathugunEconomics, Finance
Akepanidtaworn, Klakow, Gabriela Antonie and Triwit Ariyathugun, 2020. “The Impact of News on Portfolio Selection for Inattentive Investors”, mimeo.We study how the costly portfolio adjustments affect the consumption-investment decision of household investors. Investors have the Epstein and Zin (1989) utility over consumption, which allows for understanding how the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) and the degree of relative risk aversion separately determine the decision and the inattention span.Triwit AriyathugunFinance
Ahen, J. B., An, Z., Bluedorn, J., Ciminelli, G., Koczan, Z., Malacrino, D., Muhaj, D., & Neidlinger, P. (2019). Work in progress. Staff Discussion Notes, 19(02), 1.Economic development and growth depend on a country’s young people. With most of their working life ahead of them they make up about a third of the working-age population in the typical emerging market and developing economy. But the youth in these economies face a daunting labor market—about 20 percent of them are neither employed, in school, nor in training (the youth inactivity rate).Gabriele CiminelliEconomics
Ciminelli, G., Furceri, D., Ge, J., Ostry, J., & Papageorgiou, C. (2019). The Political Cost of Reforms: Fear or Reality? Staff Discussion Notes, 19(08).Many countries are experiencing persistent, weak medium-term growth and limited fiscal space. Against this background, economic policy agendas—in both advanced and developing economies—are focusing increasingly on structural reforms. While there is broad agreement on the economic benefits of structural reforms, the political-economy of reform is less settled.Gabriele CiminelliEconomics
Ciminelli, G., Duval, R., & Furceri, D. (2018). Employment protection deregulation and Labor shares in Advanced Economies. IMF Working Papers, 18(186), 1.Labor market deregulation, intended to boost productivity and employment, is one plausible, yet little studied, driver of the decline in labor shares that took place across most advanced economies since the early 1990s. This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation in a sample of 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2015, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms to employment protection legislation for regular contracts.Gabriele CiminelliEconomics
Ciminelli, G. (2018). Policy Guidance and the International Transmission of Macro News: Evidence from Investment Funds.This paper contends that U.S. macroeconomic releases are an important `global’ factor driving cross-border flows and that their effect depends on the guidance provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). I source data on allocations into investment funds and study the response of U.S. investors to domestic employment news, focusing on the post-crisis period.Gabriele CiminelliEconomics, Finance
Ciminelli, G., Ernst, E., Merola, R., & Giuliodori, M. (2019). The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality. European Journal of Political Economy, 57, 107–124.Many advanced economies have recently embarked on fiscal austerity. As this has come at a time of high and rising income disparities, policy-makers have fretted about the inequality effects of fiscal consolidations.Gabriele CiminelliEconomics
Cimadomo, J., Ciminelli, G., Furtuna, O., & Giuliodori, M. (2020). Private and public risk sharing in the Euro Area. European Economic Review, 121, 103347.This paper investigates the contribution of private and public channels for consumption risk sharing in the euro area. In particular, it explores the role of financial integration versus official financial assistance for consumption smoothing. In addition, it presents a time-varying test which allows estimating how risk sharing has evolved since the start of the euro, including the recent great recession and European sovereign debt crisis.Gabriele CiminelliEconomics, Finance
Filardo, A., Genberg, H., & Hofmann, B. (2016). Monetary analysis and the Global Financial Cycle: An Asian Central Bank Perspective. Journal of Asian Economics, 46, 1–16.Emerging Asia has seen a transformation of its monetary policy environment over the past two decades. By far, the most relevant change has been the maturing of its financial systems and the growing relevance of the global financial cycle: financial inclusion has spread, financial markets have deepened and financial globalisation has linked domestic markets closer to international markets.Hans GenbergEconomics, Finance
Yoshino, N., Morgan, P. J., Rana, P. B., & Genberg, H. (2018). In Global shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture: Asian Perspectives (pp. 114–142). essay, Asian Development Bank Institute and S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.Twenty years ago, much of Asia was engulfed in a severe financial crisis that is still present in the memory of those who experienced it first-hand. The Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 was a painful reminder of the harm that currency and banking crises can inflict on the real economy.Hans GenbergEconomics, Finance
Genberg, H. (2020). Financial Integration in Asia. In U. Volv, P. J. Morgan, & N. Yoshino (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Banking and Finance in Asia (pp. 454–468). essay, ROUTLEDGE.This chapter provides a review and appraisal of financial integration initiatives and outcomes in Asia. For the purposes of the chapter, the term “Asia” refers to economies in a geographical area stretching from Mongolia in the northwest to Pakistan in the southwest, Japan in the northeast, and New Zealand in the southeast.Hans GenbergEconomics, Finance
Casanova, Catherine and Casanova, Catherine and Remolona, Eli M. (March 11, 2018)., Common Lenders in Emerging Asia: Their Changing Roles in Three Crises BIS Quarterly Review, March 2018, Available at SSRN:The "common lender channel" is a mechanism that facilitates the spread of financial shocks around the globe. Creditor banks withdraw from previously unaffected countries when highly exposed to the epicentre of a crisis. At the time of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Japanese banks dominated lending to emerging Asia.Eli RemolonaEconomics, Finance
Hördahl, P., Remolona, E. M., & Valente, G. (2018). Expectations and risk Premia at 8:30 A.m.: Deciphering the responses of bond yields to MACROECONOMIC Announcements. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 38(1), 27–42.What explains the sharp movements of the yield curve upon the release of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements? To answer this question, we estimate an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals as risk factors. We assume that the yield curve reacts to announcements primarily because of the information they contain about the fundamentals of output, inflation, and the Fed’s inflation target.Eli RemolonaEconomics, Finance
Cheung, Y. W., Qian, X., & Remolona, E. (2019). Hoarding of INTERNATIONAL reserves: It's a NEIGHBOURLY day in Asia. Pacific Economic Review, 24(2), 208–240.To explain why Asian countries seem to have been hoarding international reserves, especially since the 1997 crisis, we consider various regional neighbourhood effects. One such effect is that of “catching up with the Joneses”. We revisit that effect by analysing several refinements of it.Eli RemolonaEconomics, Finance
Nungsari, M., (2019). Searching for Yourself: A Model of Pricing on a Two-Sided Matching Platform with Horizontally-Differentiated Agents.This paper studies how a monopolist firm operating a two-sided matching platform optimally sets its prices in the presence of agents who are horizontally-differentiated, a la Salop [1979]. Agents are searching for their ideal match (their own type) and face a pricing schedule set by the firm. In each period, agents randomly meet up and decide whether or not to marry.Melati NungsariEconomics
Nungsari, M., Flanders S., (2019). We are What We Aid: A Textual Analysis on the Effect of Short-Term Volunteering on Attitudes Towards Refugees.Does brief exposure to a new and previously unencountered migrant community change the implicit biases towards said community? We conduct a pilot study with Malaysian citizens by exposing them to a few hours of volunteering with Rohingya refugees from Myanmar and study the effect of this treatment on their attitudes.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersMigration
Dr. Melati Nungsari, & Flanders, D. S. (2018, August 13). A Comprehensive Study of Rohingya Construction Workers in Peninsular Malaysia and Recommendations for a Future Work Pilot Program. The is a comprehensive report based on qualitative and quantitative data from 288 Rohingya construction workers in Peninsular Malaysia, collected from May to August 2018. This report covers all aspects of refugee life and work in the construction industry – this includes data and ethnography on the demographics, language, family structure, and finances of these workers.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersEconomics
Nungsari, M., Flanders, S., Fadzilah Abd Rahman, Nur Aira Abd Rahim, & Dania Yahya Alshershaby. (n.d.). Modul Bertutur Bahasa Melayu: Aras Permulaan (A Basic Conversational Malay Language Curriculum for Non-Native Adult Speakers). MELATI NUNGSARI.This textbook was prepared as a collaboration between UNHCR Malaysia, Asia School of Business, and Universiti Putra Malaysia. It was designed to teach adult refugees basic conversational Malay language.Melati NungsariEducation
Nungsari, M., Flanders, S., Chuah, H.Y., Issues Facing Refugees and Asylum-Seekers in Southeast Asia: Narrowing the Gaps Between Theory, Policy and Reality.Practitioners’ experiences and perspectives on social interventions with refugees are underexplored in Southeast Asia. This gap limits the ability to create impactful public policy in the region. In this report, we present findings from an interdisciplinary research workshop held in Kuala Lumpur in 2018.Melati Nungsari, Sam FlandersForced Migration
Nungsari, M., Dedrick, M. C., & Patel, S. (2017). Team teaching an interdisciplinary first-year seminar on Magic, religion, and the origins of science: A ‘pieces-to-picture’ approach. Journal of the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, 17(1), 24–36.Interdisciplinary teaching has been advocated as a means to foster cooperation between traditionally separate fields and broaden students’ perspectives in the classroom. We explored the pedagogical difficulties of interdisciplinary team teaching through a first-year seminar in magic, religion, and the origins of science.Melati NungsariEducation
Ng, S., Plewa, C., & Sweeney, J. C. (2015, December 14). Customer engagement with a Service Offering: A Framework for Complex Services. Taylor & Francis. 193-210.Customer engagement (CE) represents a topic of rapidly increasing interest to academics and practitioners, largely due to its focus on the interactions between the consumer and the brand, which in the context of services represents a key ‘building block’ of service delivery.Sylvia NgMarketing
Ng, S., Plewa, C., & Sweeney, J. C. (2015, December 14). Customer engagement with a Service Offering: A Framework for Complex Services. Taylor & Francis. 193-210.This article investigates the professional service provider’s role in the customer resource integration process for value creation, by drawing on research in the areas of resource integration, service experience, and role theory. Roles are flexible, in that behaviors associated with a role may vary according to the situation, expectations, and learned behaviors of the actors involved. In the context of professional service providers who support a customer’s resource integration, these role variations accordingly can be termed resource integration styles.Sylvia NgMarketing
Ng, S. C., Sweeney, J. C., & Plewa, C. (2019). Managing Customer Resource Endowments and Deficiencies for Value Cocreation: Complex Relational Services. Journal of Service Research, 22(2), 156–172The resources that customers have and are able to contribute or utilize may influence, shape, and determine the support that they receive from service providers. Yet, there is limited knowledge on the types of resources customers bring into the service process, that is, customer resource endowments and deficiencies, and how these relate to the service offered by providers.Sylvia NgMarketing
Mazzelli, A., Kotlar, J., & De Massis, A. (2018). Blending in While Standing Out: Selective Conformity and New Product Introduction in Family Firms. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 42(2), 206–230.Research on the conformity-distinctiveness trade-off in family firms is divided. Examining the product innovations of Spanish manufacturing firms between 1998 and 2012, we hypothesize that family and nonfamily firms conform selectively and are driven by different motivations.Ambra MazzelliManagement
Mazzelli, A., Massis, A. D., Petruzzelli, A. M., Giudice, M. D., & Khan, Z. (2019, May 8). Behind ambidextrous search: The microfoundations of search in family and non-family firms. Long Range Planning.We offer a microfoundational perspective to challenge the consensual view of ambidextrous search as a superior approach to addressing performance problems. We characterize the nature of search as both ostensive and agentic, and suggest that search performance is idiosyncratic across individuals and highly dependent on decision makers' cognitive frameworks and social contexts.Ambra MazzelliManagement
Mazzelli, A., Nason, R. S., Massis, A. D., & Kotlar, J. (2019, January 7). Causality rules: Performance feedback on hierarchically related goals and capital investment variability. Wiley Online LibrarySince 1985, when José Sarney became the first civilian president after more than 20 years of military rule, Brazil has been struggling to consolidate its vibrant and young democracy. It has now over 140 million voters who vote in contested elections that occur regularly each two years and are closely monitored by a free press.Ambra MazzelliManagement
Nason, R., Mazzelli, A., & Carney, M. (2019). The ties that unbind: Socialization and business-owning family reference point shift. Academy of Management Review, 44(4), 846–870.Since 1985, when José Sarney became the first civilian president after more than 20 years of military rule, Brazil has been struggling to consolidate its vibrant and young democracy. It has now over 140 million voters who vote in contested elections that occur regularly each two years and are closely monitored by a free press.Ambra MazzelliManagement
Mazzelli, A., Nason, R., & Carney, M. (2019). Breadth and depth in family business research: A response to Jaskiewicz, combs, and Ketchen. Academy of Management Review, 44(4), 918–922.We appreciate Jaskiewicz, Combs, and Ketchen’s commentary on our recent AMR article “The ties that unbind: Socialization and business-owning family reference point shift” (Nason, Mazzelli, & Carney, 2019). We respond by clarifying our arguments and reflecting on the tension between breadth and depth in family business theorizing.Ambra MazzelliManagement
Hidalgo, F. D., & Lima-de-Oliveira, R. (2016). Elite Contestation and Mass Participation in Brazilian Legislative Elections) 1945-2014. In New Order and Progress: Development and Democracy in Brazil (pp. 241–267). essay, Oxford University Press.In this chapter, we examine the evolution of elite competition and mass participation in elections to the Chamber of Deputies. Drawing upon newly compiled historical data on elections between 1945 and 2010, we investigate historical changes to the de facto extent of suffrage and political inequality among elites over 17 legislative elections.Renato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science
Hidalgo, F. D., Canello, J., & Lima-de-Oliveira, R. (2016). Can Politicians Police Themselves? Natural Experimental Evidence from Brazil’s Audit Courts. Comparative Political Studies, 49(13), 1739–1773.To enhance government accountability, reformers have advocated strengthening institutions of “horizontal accountability,” particularly auditing institutions that can punish lawbreaking elected officials. Yet, these institutions differ in their willingness to punish corrupt politicians, which is often attributed to variation in their degree of independence from the political branches.Renato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science
Lima-de-Oliveira, R., & Alonso, M. L. (2017). Fueling development? assessing the impact of oil and soybean wealth on municipalities in Brazil. The Extractive Industries and Society, 4(3), 576–585.The commodity boom of the 2000s, which now came to an end, represented a windfall to resource-rich countries. However, the benefits − or potential curse − likely had heterogeneous effects at the local level, with the potential to increase regional or income inequalities within countries. This paper examines the impact of the international commodity boom during the first decade of the 2000 s on different parts of Brazil.Renato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science
Lima-de-Oliveira, R., 2018. “Powering the future: Malaysia’s energy policy challenges” Policy Ideas, n. 55, 11/2018. Kuala Lumpur: IDEAS.The energy industry is changing fast and in multiple directions with important consequences for energy-rich countries. Malaysia is also experiencing unprecedented political changes with the election of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition in May 9 of 2018, the first alternation of power since the country independence.Renato Lima de OliveiraPublic Policy
Almeida, Mansueto, Renato Lima-de-Oliveira, and Ben Ross Schneider., 2019. “Left Government, Business Politics, and the Revival of Industrial Policy.” In Routledge Handbook of Brazilian Politics, pp. 447-469. Routledge.This paper examines the resurgence of industrial policy in Brazil with special attention to three successive industrial policies adopted by PT governments (2003-16): Pitce, PDP, and Brasil Maior. The Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES) was central to all industrial policies and pursued additional policies to promote national champions and help Brazilian firms expand abroadRenato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science, Public Policy
Lima-de-Oliveira, R. (2019). Resource-led industrial development in the oil and gas global value chain. Innovation in Brazil: Advancing Development in the 21st Century, 282–302.The conditions under which lead firms will invest in upgrading suppliers occupy center stage in the debates about how global value chains (GVCs) affect development and what room is left for governments to adopt industrial policies. In a key industry for developing economies, oil and gas (O&G), the maps of oil production and value chain have been redrawn by the growth of production from high-cost resources, which means that an increasing share of the value of oil production is to be found in the supply of capital goods and services rather than in the ownership of the land.Renato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science, Public Policy
Lima-de-Oliveira, R. (2020). Corruption and local content development: Assessing the impact of the petrobras’ scandal on recent policy changes in Brazil. The Extractive Industries and Society, 7(2), 274–282.Since the 2000s, the Brazilian government relied heavily on local content (LC) as a policy instrument in the oil and gas sector to facilitate industrial development and job creation. Through quantitative targets set in oil exploration and production contracts and direct government procurement by the state-owned company Petrobras, Brazilian policymakers have sought to tie the growth of the oil industry to the strengthening of the local supply chain.Renato Lima de OliveiraPolitical Science, Public Policy
Nguyen, Bang Dang and Do, Quoc-Anh and Lee, Yen Teik and Nguyen, Kieu-Trang (June 22, 2012). Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks Available at SSRN:Focusing on former university classmates among corporate directors and U.S. congressmen, and the regression discontinuity design of close Congress elections from 2000 to 2008, we provide robust evidence of the causal impact of social-network based political connections on firm value. The value of political connections varies across politicians, states, and firms remarkably more than previously reported.Lee Yen TeikFinance
Do, Quoc-Anh and Lee, Yen Teik and Nguyen, Bang Dang, (February 2017). Directors as Connectors: The Impact of the External Networks of Directors on Firms Asian Finance Association (AsianFA) 2017 Conference, Available at SSRN:The external networks of directors significantly impact firm value and decisions. Surrounding close gubernatorial elections, local firms with directors connected to winners increase value by 4.1% over firms connected to losers. Director network’s value increases with network strength and activities, and is not due to network homophily.Lee Yen TeikFinance
Deng, X. D., Lee, Y. T., & Qiao, Z. (2018). Dancing with Shackles On: Compensation Recovery and Corporate Investment.We examine how clawback provisions, as an ex-post penalty scheme, affect corporate investment strategies. On the one hand, we show one unintended consequence of clawback provisions that future output level of innovative activities declines. On the other hand, we find that clawback provisions improve the output quality of innovative activities.Lee Yen TeikFinance
Deng, Xin and Lee, Yen Teik and Zhong, Zhengting, (September 25, 2018). Decrypting Coin Winners: Disclosure Quality, Governance Mechanism and Team Networks Available at SSRN:Using a proprietary dataset of initial coin offerings (ICOs) and cryptocurrencies, we systematically examine whether disclosure quality, governance mechanisms, and team quality can differentiate legitimate ICO projects from fraudulent ones. The three fundamental factors positively affect ICO deal completion, ICO listing status, and the amount of raised capitals.Lee Yen TeikFinance
Caton, G. L., Goh, J., Lee, Y. T., & Linn, S. C. (2016). Governance and post-repurchase performance. Journal of Corporate Finance, 39, 155–173.Payout policies based on share repurchase programs provide greater flexibility than do those based on cash dividends. We develop and test an empirical model in which strongly governed companies outperform weakly governed companies after announcing share repurchase programs.Lee Yen TeikFinance
Ederington, L., Goh, J., Teik Lee, Y., & (Zongfei) Yang, L. (2019). Are bond ratings informative? evidence from regulatory regime changes. The Journal of Fixed Income, 29(1), 6–19.The Dodd–Frank Act (Section 939B) enacted in 2010 repealed the exemption of credit rating agencies (CRAs) from Regulation Fair Disclosure. Testing whether CRAs continue to provide new information to the market after the repeal, the authors find that the significant prerepeal stock price responses to rating changes disappear after the regime change.Lee Yen TeikFinance
Flanders, S. (August 2015). Matching Markets with N-Dimensional Preferences.This paper analyzes matching markets where agent types are n-vectors of characteristics--i.e. points in R^n --and agents prefer matches that are closer to them according to a distance metric on this set (horizontal preferences).Sam FlandersEconomics
Flanders, S. (March 2019). Catfish: Lying in Matching Markets with Cheap Talk.We study a search model of online dating with nontransferable utility where agents are vertically differentiated, self-report quality, and must go on costly dates to verify a match’s quality. We show that these per-date costs induce some agents to over-report their type, consistent with the stylized facts of online dating platforms where users frequently over-report characteristics like height and income, a phenomenon known as catfishing.Sam FlandersEconomics
Nungsari, M., & Flanders, S. (July 2, 2020). Using classroom games to teach core concepts in market design, matching theory, and platform theory. International Review of Economics Education, 35, 100190.Market design studies alternative mechanisms to allocate resources when standard markets fail. One application of market design is the study of two-sided matching markets such as the marriage and dating market. Market design and matching theory also relate to the study of platforms (i.e. profit-maximizing intermediaries who serve to connect two (or more) groups of people), such as Amazon, eBay, and Uber.Sam Flanders, Melati NungsariEconomics
Flanders, S. (February 2018). The Cost of Tradition: Matching with Single-Peaked Preferences.We study the effects of different pricing schemes on the overall surplus in a privately managed retirement system with multiple service providers and switching costs. We develop a theoretical model based on the Chilean retirement system and consider a repeated auction for monopoly rights over new enrollees.Sam FlandersEconomics
landers, S. (2019, December 4). Quality Versus Fit: Market Design and Externalities on Multidimensional Matching Platforms.We study the effects of different pricing schemes on the overall surplus in a privately managed retirement system with multiple service providers and switching costs. We develop a theoretical model based on the Chilean retirement system and consider a repeated auction for monopoly rights over new enrollees.Sam Flanders, Melati NungsariEconomics
Flanders, S., Nungsari, M., & Parada‐Contzen, M. (2019). Pricing schemes and market efficiency in private retirement systems. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 22(4), 1041–1068.This chapter explores how aspects of American Christianity became international law through certain UN treaties and how international ‘development’ inspires faith in its necessity akin to American Evangelical faith. It argues that while the ‘Social Gospel’ shaped international ‘human rights’ and ‘development’ institutions, ‘Evangelicalism’ sustained and reshaped faith in both.Sam Flanders, Melati NungsariEconomics
Crow, K. International Law as Evangelism, in Benjamin Porat and David Flatto (eds.), Law as Religion, Religion as Law (forthcoming, Cambridge 2021).This chapter explores how aspects of American Christianity became international law through certain UN treaties and how international ‘development’ inspires faith in its necessity akin to American Evangelical faith. It argues that while the ‘Social Gospel’ shaped international ‘human rights’ and ‘development’ institutions, ‘Evangelicalism’ sustained and reshaped faith in both.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K., and Lina Lorenzoni-Escobar, From Traction to Treaty Bound: Erga Omnes, Multinationals, and the Arbitral Use of Judge-Made Law, (forthcoming, 2020).While the debate on international human rights and environmental obligations for multinational corporations has raged on for decades, the decisions of extra-IIL courts regarding such obligations have been creeping into international investment arbitration at an accelerated rate since the Roussalis decision of 2011.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K., Bandung's Fate (2019). Kevin Crow, 'Bandung's Fate' in Ingo Venzke & Kevin Jon Heller (eds.), Contingency in the Course of International Law, Oxford University Press, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN:Without diminishing Bandung’s importance to present day understandings of international law, this Chapter argues that its anticlimactic impact was almost inevitable. The Chapter refers to this phenomenon as Bandung’s ‘fate’: a narrow understanding of Bandung’s legal utility in its immediate present that was in many ways preordained.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K. (2019). The Opacity of Proportionality in International Courts: Could Categories Clarify? Geo. Wash. Int'l L. Rev. 289.This article argues that, although proportionality has flimsy foundations in international courts, it nevertheless has utility. It takes issue with universalist champions of proportionality because they often assume that reasons can have universally consistent weight and that, as such, international judges can weigh them.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K. (February 15, 2018). International Law and Corporate Participation in Times of Armed Conflict 37 Berkeley Journal of International Law 64 (2019), Available at SSRN:This paper explores the overlapping conceptions of ‘international legal personhood’ in international criminal law (ICL) and international investment law (IIL) in light of the December 2016 ICSID Award of Urbaser v. Argentina. It is an effort to parse out and test potential standards for investor-to-state liability for corporate participation in mass atrocities and human rights violations, particularly in instances of armed conflict.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K., & Tietje, C. (2019, September 5). Opil:Max Planck Encyclopedia of international procedural law. Oxford Public International Law.This entry provides an analysis of the rules governing the supervision of implementation of Dispute Settlement Body (“DSB”) reports based on the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) Dispute Settlement Understanding (“DSU”). Specifically, it focuses on the precise functions of the DSB’s implementation surveillance after an Appellate Body (“AB”) or Panel Report has been issued.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K. (2019). International Investment Law and the Law of Armed Conflict. Springer Link. This chapter is a revised version of a previous work appearing in the Berkeley Journal of International Law 37:1 (2019); this places greater detail and emphasis on crimes against humanity rather than actions in times of armed conflict generally.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K., and Lorenzoni, L. (May 12, 2017). International Corporate Obligations, Human Rights, and the Urbaser Standard: Breaking New Ground? 35 B.U. Int'l L.J. 87, Available at SSRN:The December 2016 ICSID Tribunal Award of Urbaser v. Argentina—the latest in the ISDS arbitral saga spawned by the 2001 Argentine financial crisis—has caused quite a stir amongst international human rights lawyers who speculate that the decision may signal an ‘inroad’ to hold corporations liable for human rights violations under public international law.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Tietje, C., and Crow, K. (December 13, 2016). The Reform of Investment Protection Rules in CETA, TTIP and Other Recent EU-FTAs: Convincing? Available at SSRN:This chapter explores the systemic problems that plague provision-dependent investment protection reforms in CETA, TTIP, and other recent EU-FTAs. The authors suggest that the current international investment system’s asymmetrical structure precludes effective reforms because reforms that “level the playing field” between state and investor run counter to the logic of a system designed with the purpose of protecting investors and investments, not states.Kevin CrowInternational Law
Crow, K. (2017). "The Concept of 'Development' in International Economic Law: Three Definitions and an Inquiry into Origin" Manchester J. Int'l Econ. L.This article provides a genealogy of ‘development’ as a legal rather than economic term. The language of ‘development’ has become pervasive in international law, especially in its human rights and economic spheres, but the concept of ‘development’ lacks a clarity of definition in international legal instruments.Kevin CrowInternational Law