Category: Featured in the Media

KUALA LUMPUR: Advance estimates for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) suggest the economy expanded by 5.8 per cent in the second quarter (2Q) of 2024, fostering optimism about the nation’s economic strength, according to Professor Ozer Karagedikli.

Karagedikli, professor of practice and director of the Central Banking Research Centre at Asia School of Business (ASB), noted that Malaysia’s economic potential is substantial and this growth rate appears achievable.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that the situation is complex.

“It is not simple. My assessment is that Malaysia’s trend growth rate is likely in the range of 4.0 and 5.5 per cent, which is a wide range in itself.

“Achieving consistent growth rates close to 6.0 per cent year after year is possible but might prove challenging without significant reforms to enhance the economy’s productivity and competitiveness,” he said in a statement.

He also pointed out that global economic uncertainties might pose risks to Malaysia’s economic outlook.

“The latest GDP figure offers much for financial sector economists to discuss.

“However, for policymakers and the broader public, the real challenge lies in sustaining such growth rates over time. That is something we all hope for,” Karagedikli added.

On July 19, the Department of Statistics Malaysia reported an estimated 5.8 per cent expansion in 2Q 2024, up from 4.2 per cent in the previous quarter and the highest growth since 7.4 per cent in 4Q 2022.

Bank Negara Malaysia is set to release the official 2Q 2024 GDP data on Friday.

Originally published by Bernama.

The financial demands of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 present a challenge unparalleled in human history. While infrastructure fi- nance was the previous big-ticket financing scheme to grab every- one’s attention, the scale of investment needed for net zero far exceeds anything we have seen before. The transformation required to decarbonise our global economy necessitates not only substantial capital but also innovative financial mechanisms and a fundamental shift in thinking.

Comparing financial needs: Infrastructure versus net zero

Just over a decade ago, the McKinsey Glob- al Institute estimated that US$57 trillion would be required for global infrastructure investments from 2013 to 2030, translat- ing into an annual spend of US$3.3 tril- lion. Southeast Asia alone needed US$800 billion per year between 2010 and 2020. Despite these vast sums, a 2018 update revealed a 10% funding gap for sanctioned projects in Asia.

In stark contrast, the financial require- ments for achieving net zero are even more daunting. According to McKinsey’s Net Zero Transition report (January 2022), about US$9.2 trillion annually is needed for in- vestments in energy and land use systems from 2023 to 2050. This figure represents about 7.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP), equivalent to half of all corporate profits and a quarter of all tax revenues in 2020. The financial burden is enormous, demanding unprecedented collaboration between the public and private sectors.

The urgency of climate action

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is critical to preventing the most severe and irreversible impact of climate change. Achieving this goal involves capping future net emissions of carbon dioxide at 570 gigatonnes from 2018 onwards and reaching net zero emissions by 2050. At current emission rates, the world will exceed this target by 2031.

Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and large-scale decarbonisa- tion efforts, supported by signifi- cant economic incentives. This ne- cessitates fundamental changes in various sectors, including energy, agriculture and transport.Compa- nies must invest heavily in decar- bonisation technologies, and high carbon footprint individuals must adapt their lifestyle.

Borrowing our approach instead of reinventing the wheel

To achieve net zero, we need effective finan- cial strategies for food, forestry and carbon capture, along with sector reforms. Even with rapid fossil fuel emission reductions, deforestation must decrease by 75% by 2030. Large-scale, nature-based carbon removal, like reforestation and restoring peatlands and seagrass, is essential. An acre of ocean seagrass can sequester 335kg of carbon an- nually, and the world’s peatlands seques- ter about 370 billion kilograms annually, or 500kg per acre. Peat soils contain more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosys- tem, highlighting the importance of pre- serving and restoring these carbon sinks.

There could perhaps be a review of the way in which the carbon experts issue cred- its, which currently focuses on “addition- ality”- the process of issuing credits for carbon-reducing activities that wouldn’t occur without the carbon credit market. Drawing from a financial economics analogy, equilibrium implies no ar- bitrage. Conversely, if arbitrage exists, there is no equilibrium. Applying this logic, existing conservation efforts in seagrass meadows, forest reserves and peatlands should also qualify for carbon credits. This expanded definition would leverage their immense potential in carbon sequestration.

Innovative financing models

Meeting the financial demands of net zero requires innovative “blended financing” models that leverage both public and private capital. One such model is the Managed Co-Lending Portfolio Programme (MCPP) by the In- ternational Finance Corporation (IFC).This syndication lending structure, supported by credit enhancements such as first-loss guarantees, enables the IFC to co-invest in a portfolio of loans on infrastructure projects with institutional investors. The recent launch of the MCPP One Planet facil- ity focuses on climate-smart investments aligned with the Paris Agreement.

Another example is the IFC/Amundi Green Cornerstone Bond Fund, which chan- nels capital from institutional investors into sustainable bond issuances in developing countries. Blended finance approach lev- erages public or multilateral development bank (MDB) capital to attract significantly more private investment. The IFC-Amundi structured fund, for instance, attracted 16 times as much private investment, demon- strating the effectiveness of this model.

Establishing a carbon credit market

To further support net zero financing, establishing an ESG-compliant auction market for carbon credits is essential. This platform should promote spot trading of standardised carbon credit contracts that adhere to leading international stand- ards, such as the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS).Standardised contracts could bundle credits from various projects, including nature-based solutions. A liquid trading platform would allow for the efficient exchange of carbon credits, with prices varying from US$0.02 per kilogram in emerging exchanges to as high as US$0.10 per kilogram in the European Union’s emissions trading schemes.

Digitalising carbon credits through se- curity tokens could democratise access, allowing retail investors to participate in and trade these assets, protecting existing carbon sinks while funding reforestation, seagrass transplantation and peatland res- toration projects.

Achieving net zero is an extraordinary challenge that requires a comprehensive, multifaceted approach. By leveraging in- novative financing models that go beyond goodwill and donations, enhancing carbon credit markets and encouraging green investments, we can mobilise the nec- essary resources to transform our global economy. Malaysia, with its strengths in shariah-compliant financial instruments, institutions and blended finance, is well po- sitioned to lead the way.A concerted effort from governments, the private sector and academia is crucial to establishing sound financial policies and sustainable invest- ment vehicles that will guide us towards a net zero future.

Originally published by The Edge.

Fourier’s GR-1 humanoid robots are displayed on Thursday during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai, China, on July 4, 2024. (AFP/AFP)

Quaternary education is the fourth level of education following an undergraduate degree, or to put it simply, postgraduate study.

Asia School of Business CEO Sanjay Sarma said Indonesia needed to develop the quaternary education sector in the country to better equip the working- age population against generational challenges.

Quaternary education is the fourth level of education following an undergraduate degree, or to put it simply, postgraduate study. 

“Technology changes so fundamentally, AI’s [artificial intelligence] impact on the economy is going to be very significant, and that’s not the only technology that’s changing the economy,” he told The Jakarta Post on Aug. 1, saying that the quaternary system had huge potential because everyone was migrating jobs.

“Even biotech is changing the economy in ways that you probably don’t realize. So the rest of the world is also struggling. But Indonesia has an opportunity […] because of its demographic dividend. So it’s gold. Invest in a gold mine.”

Most Indonesians do not go to universities, with roughly 30 percent of the population having studied at this level, according to Statistics Indonesia data from 2023. Elementary to senior high school fared better, with between 86 and 100 percent participation.

Tertiary and quaternary education have been largely limited to households within the highest tier out of five expenditure groups in Indonesia, with participation reaching over 50 percent, whereas those from the lowest tier only saw around 17 percent gaining a university-level education, according to Statistics Indonesia data.

However, Sarma said “money is not the issue” when it comes to innovating education, but vision.

“A good university is going to act like a start-up. It’s a mentality. It’s the entrepreneurial mindset where you’re probing the unknown,” he said, suggesting Indonesia adopt a two-pronged strategy to develop its quaternary education secretary.

First, the country could start with exploratory and experimental licenses as well as incentives “to change the game” in the educational system, Sarma said. Second, the government could take a couple of public universities and create sandboxes.

“Where they change the game, where they create a program that is within, where they teach engineering completely differently. This is a known model,” he explained.

“Start-ups and education are intertwined. Behave like a start- up, use technology created by start-ups, create start-ups.”

Living MIT graduates who have started and built for-profit companies do not qualify as a nation. However, if they did, they’d be the world’s 10th largest economy, with gross revenue ranking between Russia and India’s GDP of $2.097 trillion and $1.877 trillion, respectively, according to a report released by MIT in 2015.

As of 2014, the report estimates, MIT alumni have launched 30,200 active companies, employing roughly 4.6 million people, and generating roughly $1.9 trillion in annual revenue.

Originally published by The Jakarta Post.

Cover Trust enhances employee engagement, supports active learning, encourages ESG efforts, and fosters a positive attitude toward technological advancements, according to a survey by PwC Malaysia and ASB (Photo: Thirdman from Pexels)

It’s widely known that trust in a work setting acts as the cornerstone of effective leadership, cohesive teamwork, and a productive work environment. To that end, a recent comprehensive study conducted by PwC Malaysia and the ASB has shed light on the intricate dynamics of trust in the workplace, offering valuable insights for both employees and employers.

As part of the Building Trust Awards 2023, PwC Malaysia and ASB ran a survey between August 14 and September 8, 2023, with more than 11,000 respondents from their finalist companies and found that building a high-trust organisation is not merely an ethical imperative but a strategic advantage. Trust enhances employee engagement, supports active learning, encourages environmental sustainability (ESG) efforts, and fosters a positive attitude toward technological advancements. 

By prioritising fairness, transparency, and respect, organisations can create a work environment where trust thrives, ultimately leading to enhanced performance and a more cohesive corporate culture. Employers must recognise the multifaceted nature of trust and strive to address the unique needs and perceptions of their diverse workforce. By doing so, they can leverage trust as a powerful motivational force, driving both individual and organisational success.

Here are more key findings from PwC Malaysia and ASB’s Trust & Leadership Survey Study 2023.

The essence of trust

WOMEN are increasingly entering the freelance economy, particularly through e-commerce and social media platforms.

TalentCorp group COO Siva Kumeren A Narayanan identified a discrepancy in women’s participation in the formal labour force, which has not yet achieved the 60% threshold, even though their enrolment rates in higher education have reached 63%

“More women are engaging in the gig economy, for example through social media and e-commerce platforms. While this is a positive development, it does not always translate into formal labour force participation.

“Gig economy is also changing the way the formal education route is taken up and workforce entries are pathing — something the government is studying further,” he said at the Leadership Summit Series on the Future of People@Work recently.

The summit was organised by the Asia School of Business (ASB) which gathered industry leaders, scholars, and human resource (HR) experts to analyse the future of work and the obstacles it presents.

ASB CEO, president and dean Sanjay Sarma discussed the advantages of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital transformation.

He anticipated a future in which technology not only improves industries but also transforms work structures, fostering inclusive and dynamic environments.

“The future of work involves more than technology. It is about reimagining how we connect, collaborate, and grow.

“AI has transformed industries through how it integrates everything including green finance, fintech, ESG sustainability, Internet of things (IoT) and biotech,” he said.

Sanjay added that this evolution is not just a leap in technology but a revolution in how tasks and organisations are structured.

He said the AI and digital transformation critically rest on continuous learning and adaptability, so workforces remain resilient and innovative amid rapid changes.

Meanwhile, FinTech entrepreneur and BFM Radio founder Malek Ali emphasised the importance of adaptability and continuous learning in the interim.

He noted that adaptability, continuous learning, creativity, problem-solving, critical thinking, emotional intelligence, and curiosity are the greatest assets in this era of rapid change.

“To fully harness the power of AI, we must integrate it into our education system,” he said, adding that investing in AI will strengthen workforces and drive innovation and resilience.

Additionally, an associate professor at ASB, Alexander Eng, underscored the significance of understanding employee perceptions and attitudes to ensure the successful implementation of AI strategies in the workplace, thereby incorporating a human perspective into the AI discourse.

Additionally, Citi Malaysia chief Human Resources officer Tooba Modassir emphasised the evolving skill sets required for the future workforce, namely flexibility and adaptability.

“Even when sourcing for talent, we are focused on hiring for skills, competencies and culture fit.

“In a rapidly evolving job market, it is imperative to equip employees with the ability to learn and grow continuously,” he said.

He advised organisations to foster a culture of continuous learning and innovation, and encourage employees to take ownership of their development.

Meanwhile, Bursa Malaysia Group Sustainability director Ahmad Hezri Adnan touched on sustainability.

He said since the Paris Agreement in 2015, there has been a coordinated effort by businesses, governments, and society to adopt sustainable practices.

“We are witnessing a significant shift towards transparency and accountability in environmental reporting, which is crucial for achieving our sustainability goals.

“Companies must integrate these practices into their core operations and their talent force in order to drive such meaningful change,” he said.

Originally published by The Malaysian Reserve.

Asia School of Business, P&G and Temasek Foundation CSS Impact Report 2024 highlights five key findings of smallholders programme

THE P&G Center of Sustainable Small owners (CSS), at the Asia School of Business (ASB) recently announced the release of the CSS Impact Report 2024 on June 15 highlighting the performance and impact of the P&G Smallholders Program.

The programme is a collaboration between ASB, P&G and Temasek Foundation, which aims to promote sustainable and good agricultural practices, and facilitate the production of certified sustainable palm oil from among independent smallholders in the districts of Pontian and Batu Pahat in Johor Baru, Malaysia.

The report through March 2024 highlights the significant achievements and insights gained over the course of the programme. Some of the key findings include:

• Increased certification rates: Over 400 smallholder farmers have now achieved the internationally recognised Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) Independent Smallholder (ISH) Certification (RISS) under the programme, with a further 400 ISHS anticipated to be certified by the end of 2025
• Enhanced livelihoods: 306 certified independent smallholders have received a total of USD 42,630 (over RM200,000) in premium in 2021-2023 for their certified palm produce, increasing their livelihoods.
• Environmental impact: Implementation of good agricultural practices promoting better waste and chemical management among smallholder farmers, including the right use and application of fertilisers.
• Community empowerment: CSS facilitated the establishment of Pertubuhan Tani Niaga Lestari Negeri Johor (Pertaniaga), an associ ation that is owned 100% by independent smallholders, and has guided it through training, certification and yield improvement leading to a path of continuous improvement. Pertaniaga membership has now increased to over 700 smallholders.
• Training and awareness: Theprogramme has also developed a simplified CSS curriculum on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). Since July 2022, CSS has successfully trained 1,972 smallholder farmers on GAP and Best Management Practices. This GAP training and awareness is set to expand its reach through collaborations with state and district agricultural departments and farmer associations.

The Center for Sustainable Small owners (CSS) was first launched in 2019 by funding from Procter & Gamble (P&G) to deliver on its Ambition 2030 goals through the P&G smallholders initiative. Under ASB, CSS is committed to empowering and improving smallholders’ livelihoods through traceability, compliance and capacity building through training and implementation of sustainable and best in class agricultural practices in accordance with global standards.

P&G Chemicals Sustainability Program director Francis Wiederkehr shared, “The P&G Smallholder Program is entering its fifth year, and we are proud to have seen it go from strength to strength. “It has demonstrated the power of research driven but practically focused and inclusive on the ground programmes in fostering sustainable agriculture.

This year’s report once again underlines the importance of collaboration and shared responsibility among all the players across the supply chain. And it demonstrates the role of RSPO certification can play in promoting environmental stewardship and economic resilience among smallholders,” Wiederkehr added. Meanwhile, Temasek Foundation Climate & Liveability head Heng Li Lang reiterated the foundation’s commitment to supporting people centered sustainable development.

“The programme embarks on a continuous improvement strategy to enhance livelihoods of independent smallholders through sustainable and good agricultural practices including waste, peat and nutrient management. We are happy to partner with ASB and P&G to catalyse impact over the long term with the reduction of the overall ecological footprint of oil palm production by these very small farmers.”

ASB chief executive officer, president and dean Dr Sanjay Sarma noted that, “The outcomes reflected in this report are a testament to the dedication and hard work of the CSS Research Center at ASB along with the smallholder organisation Pertaniaga. “We are happy that this collaboration between ASB, P&G and Temasek Foundation is able to create such a positive impact,” he added.

Malaysia is the second largest palm oil producer globally. There are over 275,000 independent palm oil smallholder farmers in Malaysia, who collectively account for an estimated 17% of total oil palm planted area in the country. Compared to organised smallholders, independent smallholders have smaller land areas and limited access to knowledge, technology and guidance.

Originally published by The Star.

Continuing its mission of accelerating the development of demand-driven R&D efforts, The Malaysian Research Accelerator for Technology & Innovation (TIPM/MRANTI), Malaysia’s central research and innovation commercialisation agency, has officially launched the 2024 cycle of its Global Accelerator Programme (GAP).

With a focus on addressing pressing global challenges, TIPM/MRANTI GAP invites enterprising companies to embark on a transformative journey to scale up their innovative solutions, offering participants a unique blend of support, investment opportunities, and global recognition.

The programme launch also introduced this year’s GAP collaborators, with representatives from each institution attending the launch, including the Asia School of Business (ASB).

Through its range of degrees, executive education, research, and micro-credential programmes, ASB spearheads the development of agile, transformative, and principled leaders toward the advancement of the emerging world, in areas that include sustainability, AI, corporate governance, finance, operations management, and leadership.

This year, the programme targets an enrollment of at least 20 companies, offering them access to learning opportunities from industry experts via workshops and masterclasses. Participants also get the chance to network with other participating companies through team-building and engagement activities, facilitating opportunities to spark inter-industry networks.

Additionally, inclusion in the National Technology and Innovation Sandbox (NTIS) offers resources and support to foster innovation and development, granting businesses the space to test and validate their tech solutions in a controlled live environment under relaxed regulations.

With the theme Tech for Impact, GAP 2024 looks to curate the potential of local and global companies in addressing three key thematic areas under the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). These areas are Food Security & Sustainability (UN SDG 2), Healthcare (UN SDG 3), and Renewable Energy (UN SDG 7). These areas have been identified through extensive research as the most pressing issues both nationally and globally. While there have been improvements in overall sustainability efforts on a national level, development in these three areas has stagnated. Through the accelerator programme, participating companies gain access to multiple support mechanisms. This includes funding from global and local investors, and backing from R&D and business management entities.

“The main aims of GAP are empowerment and problem-solving. It functions as a catalyst for companies, equipping them with the necessary resources and network to navigate the complexities of growth and upscaling. In doing so, GAP helps them make a meaningful difference in their industries and beyond by addressing ongoing issues that affect the public in real-time. V-Farm, for example, introduced an effective vertical gardening solution which addressed food security and environmental concerns,” shares Safuan Zairi, Chief Ecosystem Officer of MRANTI, adding “We do not just hand out resources, we help our participants use them to their fullest potential for maximum impact, both for national development, and the benefit of the rakyat.”

This programme will be hosted at ASBhive under the oversight of ASB’s Innovation and Entrepreneurship Center (IEC), a key hub in Malaysia’s entrepreneurial ecosystem, marking a significant milestone for ASB. Joseph Cherian, Deputy CEO of ASB remarked, “We are thrilled and eager to establish with MRANTI to jointly operate this programme. ASB is pleased to collaborate with MRANTI on their endeavours by providing our respected faculty members, and experts who have achieved global acclaim in fields such as AI, Sustainability, Organisational Behaviour, and Matching Platforms. Our collaboration includes overseeing the programme from strategic planning and execution to module development, encompassing mentorship and progress tracking. As collaborators, we want to cultivate entrepreneur-leaders who consistently tackle demanding issues and challenge the status quo, with agility, creativity, and resourcefulness.”

Part of ASB’s collaboration with MRANTI includes the nomination to The Earthshot Prize, a prestigious global sustainability award based in the United Kingdom, for this year’s cycle. The Earthshot Prize was founded by His Royal Highness, The Prince of Wales in 2020 and aims to discover, spotlight, and scale innovative solutions that work to repair and regenerate our planet, with five winners winning the award annually.

Participating companies of the 2024 GAP cycle now have the opportunity to be nominated for the The Earthshot Prize. The collaboration also serves as a testament to ASB’s and MRANTI’s commitment to recognising and rewarding innovative solutions addressing crucial environmental challenges.

As of the last cycle, the programme has successfully impacted 20 companies and 50 entrepreneurs, amassing a value creation totalling RM22.42 million, with RM21.63 million in revenue and RM790,610 in investments. Some of these successes include Luwjistik, VStream Revolution, Sonicboom Solutions , and Izmir Technologies Industries in 2022, whilst 2023 saw Entomal Biotech, CS Leaflabs, WeAssist, and Mobiva making their mark.

These achievements inspire MRANTI to aim higher in catalysing the growth of local and global companies, as well as, advancing innovative solutions. GAP 2024 will run from September to November, and all eligible companies are encouraged to apply and take advantage of this unique opportunity to accelerate their growth and take their innovations to the next level.

For more details on GAP 2024, please visit mranti.my/gap.

Originally published by Disruptr MY.

Sanjay Sarma, our CEO, President, and Dean, recently spoke with CNN Indonesia about the rapidly changing world of artificial intelligence and its extensive implications. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding from his expert perspective.

Watch here.
Originally published by CNN Indonesia.

KERAJAAN Malaysia telah melaksanakan program rasionalisasi subsidi bahan bakar dengan menghapuskan subsidi diesel. Walaupun beberapa kategori pengguna diesel masih menerima subsidi, bagi kebanyakan yang menggunakan bahan bakar sebagai sumber penting, penghapusannya bermaksud peningkatan kos pengeluaran.

Kesan makroekonomi penghapusan subsidi

Nota ini menghujahkan rasionalisasi subsidi bahan bakar tidak semestinya bersifat inflasi dan penjimatan daripada peng hapusan subsidi tidak harus diperuntukkan untuk mana-mana program perbelanjaan tertentu. Pemahaman kesan makroekonomi ini adalah penting supaya polisi makroekonomi yang sesuai dapat dilaksanakan dan kritikan yang salah terhadap program rasionalisasi subsidi dapat dielakkan.

Inflasi

Peningkatan harga diesel akan mengubah harga relatif barangan dan perkhidmatan. Harga barangan dan perkhidmatan yang intensif diesel akan meningkat berbanding dengan yang lain. Sebagai contoh, perkhidmatan pengangkutan akan menjadi lebih mahal dan harg anya mungkin naik berbanding perkhidmatan perbankan. Ini boleh berlaku sama ada melalui peningkatan harga perkhidmatan pengangkutan sementara harga perkhidmatan perbankan kekal, atau penurunan harga perkhidmatan perbankan sementara harga perkhidmatan pengangkutan kekal sama.

Hasilnya bergantung kepada polisi kewangan yang dilaksanakan oleh Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) dan polisi fiskal kerajaan. Polisi sekatan BNM dan kerajaan boleh menahan kos pengangkutan daripada meningkat sambil menekan harga barangan dan perkhidmatan lain. Walau bagaimanapun, polisi ini akan mengorbankan aktiviti ekonomi dengan ketara. Kemungkinan senario yang berlaku dan yang lebih baik ialah peningkatan harga perkhidmatan pengangkutan tanpa penurunan harga perkhidmatan perbankan. Ini bukan inflasi tetapi perubahan dalam harga relatif.

Untuk pemahaman mudah: apabila harga bahan bakar meningkat di pam, indeks harga pengguna (CPI) akan naik dalam bulan kenaikan tersebut. Saiz kenaikan adalah sebanding dengan kepentingan bahan bakar dalam bakul CPI. Selepas kenaikan permulaan ini, tekanan permintaan yang mendasari yang menyebabkan semua harga meningkat lebih kurang selari akan menentukan trend inflasi masa depan. Tekanan permintaan ini boleh dipengaruhi oleh polisi ekonomi, terutamanya polisi kewangan. Bank pusat boleh mengekalkan tahap inflasi yang rendah dengan melaksanakan polisi yang sesuai.

Kesan peningkatan harga bahan bakar tidak terhad kepada harga di pam sahaja. Harga barangan yang menggunakan bahan bakar sebagai sumber pengeluaran juga mungkin meningkat dari masa ke semasa, menyebabkan tempoh pening katan CPI yang berpanjangan di atas kadar inflasi yang mendasa ri sementara harga relatif diselaraskan. Walau bagaimanapun, selagi bank pusat mengekalkan inflasi mendasar yang stabil, inflasi yang diukur akan kembali ke tahap tersebut.

Oleh itu, pelupusan subsidi bahan bakar di Malaysia tidak semestinya bersifat inflasi, dengan syarat BNM tetap komited untuk mengekalkan inflasi mendasar yang tetap. Rekod prestasi BNM menunjukkan bahawa ia boleh menghalang kejutan sementara daripada membawa kepada inflasi tinggi yang berpanjangan. Sepanjang 20 tahun yang lalu, kadar inflasi di Malaysia berpurata 2.2 peratus, menunjukkan kestabilan mengikut piawaian antarabangsa.

Apabila subsidi bahan bakar dilupuskan, ukuran perubahan CPI mungkin akan menjadi lebih tidak menentu, kerana harga minyak antarabangsa yang naik turun memberi kesan kepada ekonomi domestik dengan sepenuhnya. Walau bagaimanapun, BNM boleh menghalang perkara ini daripada menyebabkan ketidakstabilan dalam inflasi mendasar. Memastikan orang ramai bahawa peningkatan harga yang sementara tidak akan menggagalkan komitmen terhadap inflasi yang rendah dan stabil boleh membantu menambat jangkaan inflasi.

Penjimatan belanjawan daripada rasionalisasi subsidi

Persoalan ini akan menimbulkan pelbagai cadangan, dengan ramai yang mengesyorkan agar penjimatan dibelanjakan untuk projek tertentu. Satu cadangan yang kerap ialah menggunakan penjimatan tersebut untuk memperbaiki dan mengembangkan infrastruktur pengangkutan awam, mengujahkan bahawa harga bahan bakar yang lebih tinggi meningkatkan kos perjalanan dengan kereta, yang boleh dikurangkan dengan pengangkutan awam yang lebih baik.

Segelintir pihak mungkin mempertikaikan bahawa penjimatan itu harus disalurkan kepada penambahbaikan kesihatan awam dan pendidikan. Walaupun peningkatan perbelanjaan untuk pengangkutan awam, kesihatan dan pendidikan mungkin wajar, keputusan perbelanjaan awam tidak harus diikat kepada sumber pendapatan tertentu. Dana adalah sepiawai dan keputusan dalam perbelanjaan awam harus berdasarkan keutamaan dan bukannya sumber pendapatan.

Sebagai alternatif, penjimatan daripada rasionalisasi subsidi bahan bakar boleh digunakan untuk mengehadkan pinjaman awam, mengelakkan peningkatan hutang awam.
Pengurangan dalam pinjaman awam akan memudahkan akses kepada dana untuk sektor swasta domestik dan asing untuk pelaburan dalam teknologi dan inovasi, memupuk pertumbuhan ekonomi dan daya saing dalam jangka panjang. Peruntukan penjimatan sedemikian boleh memberikan manfaat ekonomi yang ketara, melengkapkan kestabilan makroekonomi yang dicapai melalui polisi kewangan yang berkesan.

PENULIS adalah Profesor Ekonomi di Asia School of Business dan Pengarah Kanan Program Perbankan Pusat & Kewangan

Originally published by Utusan Malaysia.