Asia School of Business

Global Inquiry, Local Heart

Scenario Planning for Strategic Decision-Making, Learning, and Managing Uncertainty

Thomas Chermack, Megan Crawford, Nardia Haigh, Shardul Phadnis, Rafael Ramírez, Paul Schoemaker

The strategic landscape is unquestionably uncertain—even ‘radically uncertain’. 1 Climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, wars in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan, the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) and other technological breakthroughs, rapid changes in tariff and other trade policies, forced migrations and their backlashes all manifest challenging conditions businesses must address, and if at all possible, strategically. In this uncertain and ambiguous landscape, 2, 3 it is no surprise that acronyms like VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity), 4, 5 TUNA (turbulent, uncertain, novel, ambiguous), 3 BANI (brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible) 6 and RUPT (rapid, unpredictable, paradoxical, tangled) 6 have gained traction.