The 2020 Covid-19 pandemic is leading to sharp recessions in many parts of the world. Official support is needed to prevent a total collapse of national economies and the global economy. What form should such support take, how can it be financed, and what is the role of central banks? What are the implications for capital flows and exchange rates?
As contractions are taking place in virtually all countries in the world, governments and central banks are introducing stimulus policies of an unprecedented nature and scale in attempts to prevent a total collapse of their economies. While the policies are necessary, it is important to recognize that they entail costs. To minimize these costs the policies must be well adapted to the specific problem they are trying to solve.
This seminar seeks to clarify what policies are likely to be most suitable, and where Central Banks need to be particularly present.
The nature of the COVID-19 recession.
How severe is the expected recession? Should we think of it as the consequence of a fall in demand or a reduction in supply? How does this distinction matter?
What will the recovery look like?
V-shaped, a recovery starting in the second half of 2020 and a return to normal in 2021: U-shaped, a more long-drawn out recovery that will last two, three or four years; or L-shaped which leaves us permanently less well off in terms of the level of output and employment and possibly also in terms of future rates of economic growth?
What stimulus policies are appropriate?
How would the nature of the recession and the path of the recovery matter for the types of stimulus programs that need to be introduced? What are the programs intended to accomplish? When, and how, should the stimulus programs be terminated? Which public authority should take the lead in the design and communication of the programs?
What are the potential costs?
Stimulus packages are necessary, but they have to be financed. Do different types if financing (taxes, borrowing in the capital market, borrowing from the Central Bank) entail different costs? What are possible international implications?
What policies are being implemented in different jurisdiction?
These are early times, but what are the experiences of different jurisdictions with the policies implemented and their effects?
Possible longer-term implications for the financial system and for financial stability.
Will traditional banks be disrupted by FinTech and BigTech firms as major financial intermediaries? What are the financial stability consequences? Will globalization of production processes be rolled back? What would be the consequences for monetary stability?
Prof. Hans Genberg is Professor of Economics at the Asia School of Business and the Senior Director of Banking and Finance Programs, overseeing both the Masters in Central Banking program and the upcoming Masters in Banking, Finance, and Technology program.
He has published widely on issues related to exchange rate regimes, reserve management and capital markets development, having worked in senior roles at the South East Asian Central Bank (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Hans also has extensive academic experience, having been Professor of International Economics from 1979 to 2008 and Head of the International Economics Department from 1989 to 1998 at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.
Hans was recently ranked as one of the top five Economist in Malaysia by IDEAs based on the Research Paper in Economics (RePEc) Author Service.
Hans holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago.